(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (5) Los Angeles Clippers
In this series, we've got a match-up between a team that always makes the playoffs going up against a team that never does. When I say never does, I mean this is the Clippers' second playoff appearance in the last 15 years. When it comes to situations like this, the first team usually wins.
If anyone remembers from my post from before the playoffs began, I had San Antonio winning out West, and their sweep of Utah in the first round only makes me feel better about my claim. They're led by three veterans of the NBA Finals in Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili, all who I believe played like All Stars when they were on the court. What I really love about them, though, is their depth. For a team that is very well filled at the top, you usually don't see so many quality players in the supporting cast like the Spurs have. There are some who may worry that they're shift from an defensive oriented team to an offensive may make them less capable of winning it all, but they're still good at preventing baskets, ranking 10th in the league.
As for the LA Clippers, they have one of the best duos in the league, but they're supporting cast, even if they Chauncey Billups, still doesn't rival that of San Antonio. They're only 18th in the league in defense, and going up against the best offense in the NBA, one has to wonder if they'll be able to get the necessary stops. It doesn't help that they're best player is in his first year with the time, they're second best player is a sophomore, and not a single one of their top seven leading scorer has played with the team for more than two years. Also, Gregg Popovich has proven himself a great coach, while there's been some questions about Del Negro.
I always say that it's the superstars who carry the team in the playoffs. The best player in this series is Chris Paul, but unfortunately, he's matched up with Parker, who's having one of his best seasons ever. The LA Clippers are a good team, but in way too many areas, they're outmatched by the Spurs. They'll probably do better in the future, but this is just not their year.
Prediction: San Antonio in 5
(2) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (3) Los Angeles Lakers
To start off, I want to make this clear that I can safely say the Oklahoma City Thunder are a better team. However, great teams don't win championships year after year because they face match-ups that might not suit them well.
The big problem with Oklahoma City is their lack of an offensive post player down low. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are two of the best scorers in basketball, but they can't provide the same dominance, efficiency, and consistency that a 7-footer near the basket can. I don't doubt that Westbrook will be able to have a good series, but my question is with Durant. Back in 2010, when these two teams faced off in the first round, Durant struggled against the physical defense of a player formerly known as Ron Artest. Durant has grown and matured into one of the best players in the NBA since then, but one thing to notice in the three meetings between LA and OKC (OKC won two of them) is that Durant's field goal percentage dropped from the 50s to the 40s and then to the 30s. I'm not sure if he's figured out World Peace yet.
In the Lakers case, they have what championship teams need, and that's two very talented bigs in Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol (oh, and there's Kobe Bryant too). What I think will decide the series is how well Pau Gasol plays. The fact is, in the last three playoff series, Gasol has been less than impressive. Not including his breakout Game 7, in the series against Denver, he averaged 11.2 points on 41% shooting. That's simply not going to cut it. When the LA Lakers last played OKC in the playoffs, Gasol averaged 18.0 PPG, 12.2 RPG, 3.7 APG, and 53.2% shooting from the field. That's the type of production he's going to need in order for the LA Lakers to move on.
I think Durant may struggle with World Peace early on, but I think when it comes down to it, Durant will be able to prevail. Thabo Sefolosha has given Bryant a hard time, but I think Bryant has looked just as good in the playoffs in the clutch as he's ever has. As I said, if Gasol plays well, the Lakers will win, but I just think the athleticism of Ibaka, the toughness of Perkins, or the smarts of Collison will just be too much for him. Also, after being elbowed by World Peace, I expect James Harden to have a big series.
Prediction: Oklahoma City in 6
Here are my revised predictions for the rest of the playoffs:
Conference Finals
Miami def. Boston in 7
San Antonio def. Oklahoma City in 7
NBA Finals
Miami def. San Antonio in 6
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