(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (2) Oklahoma City Thunder
Credit: Ronald Martinz, Harry How/Getty Images.
Why the Spurs Will Win: The San Antonio Spurs have just looked downright unbeatable. They haven't lost a single game in the playoffs, and going back to the regular season, they've won 18 in a row and 29 out of their last 31. Another thing to note is that only two of their eight games in the postseason have been decided by single digits, and they've had a +13.8 point differential so far.
Though we consider San Antonio an old team, they're actually not too old. They have a nice blend of championship experience in their Big 3, while also possessing talented young role players. One could also make a strong argument that the San Antonio Big 3 of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker, is actually superior to the OKC Big 3 of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden.
Aside from looking at the Big 3 head to head, San Antonio has advantages elsewhere. First off, they've got championship experience, with Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili having hoisted three trophies together. Also, in my opinion, San Antonio has more talent and depth among their role and bench players. In the conference finals, playing the X's and O's could mean the difference between a win and a loss, and this is where having a coach like Gregg Popovich matters. Finally, with two teams so evenly matched, home-court advantage matters, and that goes to San Antonio.
Why the Thunder Will Win: I think most people would agree that the Oklahoma City Thunder are the sexier pick to make it to the NBA Finals. They're the team on the rise that seems to be attracting on the bandwagon fans. Oklahoma City hasn't been as dominant as San Antonio has been, but at the end of the day, OKC has only lost once in the playoffs so far. While San Antonio swept two teams that didn't even make the playoffs last year, Oklahoma City went 8-1 against the last two NBA Champions. They've blown their opponents out, while also showing their ability to win close games.
Usually when picking a match-up where I feel it's basically a toss up, I go with the team that has the best player because they're the one who is going to carry the team in crunch time. There are a lot of star players in this series, but the best one is definitely Kevin Durant. The NBA's leading scorer and MVP runner-up has looked great in the playoffs, averaging 26.7 PPG while shooting 48.8% from the field. Especially important is how Durant has played with the game on the line. According to Basketball-Reference, in the postseason, with 2 minutes left in the 4th quarter or overtime, and the no time up by more than five points, Durant has made 7 field goals on 58.3% shooting. Basically, if the game is on the line, you can bet on Durant winning the game for OKC.
Key Match-Up: In the playoffs, series tend to be decided by the play down low, but here we could have the battle of the point guards. I think that Westbrook is a better player than Parker is, but I think if we look at this year, Parker has been the better of the two. However, Westbrook has definitely stepped it up in the playoffs, while Parker has kind of stayed steady compared to how he was in the regular season. If either one plays significantly better than the other, then their team will win.
Verdict: In 1993, the Seattle SuperSonics were one game away from the NBA Finals. They wouldn't actually make it to the finals until three years later. This just shows that teams don't always go one step at a time from year to year. This San Antonio-OKC match-up is going to be a close one, but I think two things will end up tipping it for the Spurs. One, championship teams need great bigs, and Tim Duncan has played like the Duncan of old so far in the postseason. OKC just doesn't have any post players at Duncan's level. Two, I can't imagine either team losing at home, and that's where home-court comes in handy.
Prediction: San Antonio in 7
Credit: Mark J. Terrill, AP.
(2) Miami Heat vs. (4) Boston Celtics
Credit: Mike Ehrmann, Getty Images North America.
Why the Heat Will Win: Miami hasn't looked unstoppable in the playoffs, but they've definitely looked great. They easily dismantled a New York Knicks team that was 18-6 under new coach Mike Woodson, and once they adjusted to playing without Chris Bosh, Indiana stood no chance against them. Another way to think about it is that in games with Bosh, Miami outscored Indiana by a margin of +6.0, and Indiana has a better record than Boston does.
Similar to what I said about OKC, as we progress towards the NBA Finals, the team with the best player tends to be the team that moves forward. In this case, not only does Miami easily have the best player in the series, they easily have the two best players in the series. Actually, they have two of the top 5 players in the entire NBA. The series against Indiana shows how dominant LeBron James and Dwyane Wade can be, and how the play of those two alone can carry their teams. In the last three games against Indiana, James and Wade combined for point totals of 70, 58, and 69.
Why Boston Will Win: Somehow, someway, Boston always seems to make it back to the Eastern Conference Finals. Still, Boston really doesn't have the same level of dominance in the postseason that any of the other teams left have. Another way of thinking about it is that Boston has lost more games in the playoffs than Miami, OKC, and San Antonio have lost combined. On the bright side, Boston is 6-1 at home in the postseason, and that one lost was by one point.
To be honest, not a lot says that Boston will win this series, but without Bosh, Boston's chances definitely went up. While Miami has the two best players in this series, the next five best players all belong to Boston, in the form of Kevin Garnett, Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Brandon Bass. In terms of depth, I feel the advantage is definitely in Boston's favor, though the absence of Bosh does give Heat role players a chance to step up. As well, if the saying that defense wins championships is true, Boston should feel good about themselves because they do have the number one defense in the league.
During the regular season, Boston beat Miami three times in the month of April, though the last of the three was a game where the coaches sat their star players. In the first two April wins, Bosh really struggled, and that allowed Boston to win the game. Possibly that's indicative of how Boston will be able to play against Miami without Bosh with them. And if championship teams require great post players, this definitely gives the edge to Boston with Garnett, than it does to Miami with Haslem or Anthony.
Key Match-Up: Watching the Boston-Philadelphia game yesterday, one of the NBA analysts said that if Rajon Rondo is the best player, Boston would win the game. I think that kind of rings true for this series too. Rondo vs. Mario Chalmers will be key to how far Miami can go. If Rondo gathers a couple triple-doubles, Boston has the chance of pulling the upset. On the other hand, if Chalmers excels and steps up as the third scorer on the Heat, then Miami should be able to win.
Verdict: Not having Bosh play, or play effectively, really hurts Miami against Boston, as evident by their regular season match-ups. However, Miami's ability to take care of Indiana without Bosh, and Boston's inability to take care of an average Philadelphia team makes me confident this is Miami's series to win. I think how Garnett plays against the Miami frontcourt will determine whether this game goes to 5 or 6.
Prediction: Miami in 6
Credit: Brian Spurlock, US Presswire.
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