Conference Finals Prediction

After several weeks, here we are, finally down to the last four. I think we've got two really fun match-ups, both which can be described in the same way. These match-ups are between the teams who are on the rise but have yet to reach the promised land, versus the teams who have been there and won a ring, and are trying to get one more. Will age and experience pay off, are will youth and energy prevail?

(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (2) Oklahoma City Thunder

Credit: Ronald Martinz, Harry How/Getty Images.

Why the Spurs Will Win: The San Antonio Spurs have just looked downright unbeatable. They haven't lost a single game in the playoffs, and going back to the regular season, they've won 18 in a row and 29 out of their last 31. Another thing to note is that only two of their eight games in the postseason have been decided by single digits, and they've had a +13.8 point differential so far.

Though we consider San Antonio an old team, they're actually not too old. They have a nice blend of championship experience in their Big 3, while also possessing talented young role players. One could also make a strong argument that the San Antonio Big 3 of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker, is actually superior to the OKC Big 3 of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden. 

Aside from looking at the Big 3 head to head, San Antonio has advantages elsewhere. First off, they've got championship experience, with Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili having hoisted three trophies together. Also, in my opinion, San Antonio has more talent and depth among their role and bench players. In the conference finals, playing the X's and O's could mean the difference between a win and a loss, and this is where having a coach like Gregg Popovich matters. Finally, with two teams so evenly matched, home-court advantage matters, and that goes to San Antonio.

Why the Thunder Will Win: I think most people would agree that the Oklahoma City Thunder are the sexier pick to make it to the NBA Finals. They're the team on the rise that seems to be attracting on the bandwagon fans. Oklahoma City hasn't been as dominant as San Antonio has been, but at the end of the day, OKC has only lost once in the playoffs so far. While San Antonio swept two teams that didn't even make the playoffs last year, Oklahoma City went 8-1 against the last two NBA Champions. They've blown their opponents out, while also showing their ability to win close games.

Usually when picking a match-up where I feel it's basically a toss up, I go with the team that has the best player because they're the one who is going to carry the team in crunch time. There are a lot of star players in this series, but the best one is definitely Kevin Durant. The NBA's leading scorer and MVP runner-up has looked great in the playoffs, averaging 26.7 PPG while shooting 48.8% from the field. Especially important is how Durant has played with the game on the line. According to Basketball-Reference, in the postseason, with 2 minutes left in the 4th quarter or overtime, and the no time up by more than five points, Durant has made 7 field goals on 58.3% shooting. Basically, if the game is on the line, you can bet on Durant winning the game for OKC.

Key Match-Up: In the playoffs, series tend to be decided by the play down low, but here we could have the battle of the point guards. I think that Westbrook is a better player than Parker is, but I think if we look at this year, Parker has been the better of the two. However, Westbrook has definitely stepped it up in the playoffs, while Parker has kind of stayed steady compared to how he was in the regular season. If either one plays significantly better than the other, then their team will win.

Verdict: In 1993, the Seattle SuperSonics were one game away from the NBA Finals. They wouldn't actually make it to the finals until three years later. This just shows that teams don't always go one step at a time from year to year. This San Antonio-OKC match-up is going to be a close one, but I think two things will end up tipping it for the Spurs. One, championship teams need great bigs, and Tim Duncan has played like the Duncan of old so far in the postseason. OKC just doesn't have any post players at Duncan's level. Two, I can't imagine either team losing at home, and that's where home-court comes in handy.

Prediction: San Antonio in 7

Credit: Mark J. Terrill, AP.

(2) Miami Heat vs. (4) Boston Celtics

Credit: Mike Ehrmann, Getty Images North America.

Why the Heat Will Win: Miami hasn't looked unstoppable in the playoffs, but they've definitely looked great. They easily dismantled a New York Knicks team that was 18-6 under new coach Mike Woodson, and once they adjusted to playing without Chris Bosh, Indiana stood no chance against them. Another way to think about it is that in games with Bosh, Miami outscored Indiana by a margin of +6.0, and Indiana has a better record than Boston does. 

Similar to what I said about OKC, as we progress towards the NBA Finals, the team with the best player tends to be the team that moves forward. In this case, not only does Miami easily have the best player in the series, they easily have the two best players in the series. Actually, they have two of the top 5 players in the entire NBA. The series against Indiana shows how dominant LeBron James and Dwyane Wade can be, and how the play of those two alone can carry their teams. In the last three games against Indiana, James and Wade combined for point totals of 70, 58, and 69. 

Why Boston Will Win: Somehow, someway, Boston always seems to make it back to the Eastern Conference Finals. Still, Boston really doesn't have the same level of dominance in the postseason that any of the other teams left have. Another way of thinking about it is that Boston has lost more games in the playoffs than Miami, OKC, and San Antonio have lost combined. On the bright side, Boston is 6-1 at home in the postseason, and that one lost was by one point.

To be honest, not a lot says that Boston will win this series, but without Bosh, Boston's chances definitely went up. While Miami has the two best players in this series, the next five best players all belong to Boston, in the form of Kevin Garnett, Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Brandon Bass. In terms of depth, I feel the advantage is definitely in Boston's favor, though the absence of Bosh does give Heat role players a chance to step up. As well, if the saying that defense wins championships is true, Boston should feel good about themselves because they do have the number one defense in the league. 

During the regular season, Boston beat Miami three times in the month of April, though the last of the three was a game where the coaches sat their star players. In the first two April wins, Bosh really struggled, and that allowed Boston to win the game. Possibly that's indicative of how Boston will be able to play against Miami without Bosh with them. And if championship teams require great post players, this definitely gives the edge to Boston with Garnett, than it does to Miami with Haslem or Anthony.

Key Match-Up: Watching the Boston-Philadelphia game yesterday, one of the NBA analysts said that if Rajon Rondo is the best player, Boston would win the game. I think that kind of rings true for this series too. Rondo vs. Mario Chalmers will be key to how far Miami can go. If Rondo gathers a couple triple-doubles, Boston has the chance of pulling the upset. On the other hand, if Chalmers excels and steps up as the third scorer on the Heat, then Miami should be able to win.

Verdict: Not having Bosh play, or play effectively, really hurts Miami against Boston, as evident by their regular season match-ups. However, Miami's ability to take care of Indiana without Bosh, and Boston's inability to take care of an average Philadelphia team makes me confident this is Miami's series to win. I think how Garnett plays against the Miami frontcourt will determine whether this game goes to 5 or 6.

Prediction: Miami in 6

Credit: Brian Spurlock, US Presswire.

Top 10 Former SuperSonics of 2012

I figured that since this site is called Saving SuperSonics History, I should probably actually start talking about the team more. Therefore, I'm going to publish the first annual list ranking the best players in the NBA who used to play for Seattle. The way I feel, this last can lasts about 15 more years, which is about when Kevin Durant will be retiring.

Didn't Qualify (500 minutes): Chris Wilcox, Mikki Moore


Honorable Mention: Damien Wilkins

Reggie Evans. Credit: Stephen Dunn, Getty Images.

10. Reggie Evans (LAC)-Make no mistake, he is an excellent rebounder. This makes him a good role player, but when talking about skill, we have to look at the entire game. Aside from rebounding, Evans doesn't really do anything else and is a big detriment on offense.
Main Stats: 13.8 MPG, 1.9 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 0.3 APG

9. Rashard Lewis (WAS)-For the second highest paid player in the NBA, he doesn't even average double figure points per game (7.8). For a 6'10 forward, he only averaged 5.4 rebounds...per 36 minutes. For a guy who can basically shoot over everyone he plays, he shoots a mediocre 24% from three. At least he makes his free throws.
Main Stats: 26.0 MPG, 7.8 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1.0 APG

8. Johan Petro (NJN)-He never reached his potential in Seattle, but at least he didn't annoy us by breaking out elsewhere. One thing we can say about him is that he has been consistent throughout his career...consistently mediocre. Petro's a solid rebounder and doesn't hurt his team too much in other ways.
Main Stats: 15.6 MPG, 4.2 PPG, 3.8 RPG. 0.8 APG

7. Kurt Thomas (POR)-At his age, it's a feat just to still be playing in the NBA. He doesn't really do anything eye-popping anymore, but he still contributes in the little ways such as rebounding, setting screens, providing leadership, etc.
Main Stats: 15.2 MPG, 3.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 0.9 APG

6. Earl Watson (UTA)-In just over 20 minutes per game, he averages a measly 3 points on a devastatingly bad 33.8% shooting from the field, and 19.2% from three. The only reason he makes it this high is because he has shown good, though not great, passing abilities.
Main Stats: 20.7 MPG, 3.0 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 4.3 APG

5. Vladimir Radmanovic (ATL)-Unlike, the other players mentioned so far on this list, Radmanovic is different in that he can be a direct game changer (Evans' rebounding and Thomas' miscellaneous little things are what I would call indirect game changers). Simply, put he is a threat from long distance, making about a three a game, on a solid 37% shooting.
Main Stats: 15.4 MPG, 4.5 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.1 APG

Nick Collison. Credit: Chris Landsberger, The Oklahoman.

4.  Nick Collison (OKC)-FINALLY we get to some respectable players! These are players who I know for sure will have a job in the NBA next season. Collison doesn't have overwhelming stats, but he knows that he's not a superstar and doesn't try to do too much. He's an outstanding role player who does the little things like rebound, sets screens, play defense, and shoot a high percentage.
Main Stats: 20.7 MPG, 4.5 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.3 APG

3. Luke Ridnour (MIN)-With Ridnour, this lists has its first full-time starter. Starting in 53 games for Minnesota, he put up very respectable numbers of 12.1 PPG and 4.8 APG, while knocking down his free throws at an 89% clip. Unlike the other players on this list, his skill hasn't deteriorated too much from his time in Seattle.
Main Stats: 33.0 MPG, 12.1 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 4.8 APG

Ray Allen. Credit: Greg Cooper, US Presswire.

2. Ray Allen (BOS)-He's no longer a star player, but this guy still has a lot of game. He shot 45.8% from the field and 91.5% from the line, both of which are above his career average. More impressively, he was nearly unstoppable from three, shooting a career high 45.3% from behind the arc. At any time, Walter Ray can break out and play like a super star.
Main Stats: 34.0 MPG, 14.2 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 2.4 APG

1. Kevin Durant (OKC)-Duh.
Main Stats: 38.6 MPG, 28.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 3.5 APG

The Seattle SuperSonics ARE NOT the Oklahoma City Thunder

The TNT guys speak the truth.

The Most Unexpected Conference Finals of the Past 20 Years

With the Oklahoma City Thunder beating the LA Lakers yesterday (as much as I hated to see the Oklahoma fans celebrate, the team played fantastic), the Western Conference Finals are set. On the other side of the bracket, though, there's still much left to be decided. I bet 95% of sports fan predicted Miami and Chicago to battle it out for a trip to the Finals, but that's not going to be the case. In fact, with the injury of Bosh, there's a very good possibility of seeing either an Indiana/Boston match-up, or an Indiana/Philadelphia one. Either way, there's a very strong possibility that the Eastern Conference Finals will pit two teams that we didn't expect to see at this stage in the postseason when the playoffs began. With that being said, I want to present what I think are the 5 most unexpected conference finals of the past 20 years.

5. 1994 Eastern Conference Finals
Match-up: (2) New York Knicks (57-25) vs. (5) Indiana Pacers (47-35)


To be honest, finding a fifth match-up was kind of difficult. While the New York Knicks, being a number two seed, were probably not a surprise to make it to the conference finals, the Indiana Pacers probably weren't that much of a long shot either. They ended the season on an eight game winning streak, including winning their last two games by margins of 45 and 33.

Still, Indiana had started the season 3-8, and having to go against the No. 1 seed Atlanta Hawks in the first round probably made it a surprise that they had gotten to the final four. As well, New York in the Eastern Conference Finals was no guarantee, as they had a second round date against the defending champion, thought Michael Jordan-less, Chicago Bulls.

4. 2010 Eastern Conference Finals
Match-up: (2) Orlando Magic (59-23) vs. (4) Boston Celtics (50-32)


Despite Boston having been two years removed from winning the NBA championship, people left them for dead. We thought they were old and dead, but somehow (kind of like this year), they managed to keep advancing. Though they started off great, Boston ended the season 5-8, ending up with a solid, but not great, 50-32 record and a number four seed.

Their first round opponent were the Miami Heat, who unlike Boston, were scorching and had ended the season only losing once in their last 13 games. Most people expected a close series, and the consensus was generally split over who would win. Imagine people's surprise when it only took Boston 5 games to vanquish their foe! Though they could beat the Heat, they probably would not have beat the Cleveland Cavaliers, they of who led the league with 61 wins, right? Wrong. Boston dispatched Cleveland on their way to a match-up against the expected Orlando Magic.

3. 2011 Western Conference Finals
Match-up: (3) Dallas Mavericks (57-25) vs. (4) Oklahoma City Thunder


On paper, this match-up doesn't look to unexpected, but if we remember from last year, it kind of was. First off, Oklahoma City wasn't a complete shock to make the Western Conference Finals. In fact, they were expected to beat the San Antonio Spurs, if only San Antonio had made it to the second round. Still, the prospect of having to go against the team with the best record out West did not make for easy nights.

The real surprise in the Western Conference Finals were the Dallas Mavericks. Despite having a splendid 57-25 record, which was the same as the no. 2 seed and title favorite LA Lakers, Dallas was given no shot of making it to the finals. In fact, people deemed that their match-up with Portland in the first round did not suit them well, and a good portion of ESPN experts actually thought they would lose then. When they made it to the second round, there was not a analyst, expert, or site on the web that I could find that had Dallas beating the LA Lakers. The fact that the sweeped LA made it even more shocking.

2. 2007 Western Conference Finals
Match-up: (3) San Antonio Spurs (58-24) vs. (4) Utah Jazz (51-31)


With a 58-24 record, there's no reason to think that the Spurs wouldn't have made the conference finals. However, there were two things that could've made people a little hesitant to pick the San Antonio. For one,  they had lost the very first game of the playoffs to the Denver Nuggets. Though San Antonio did bounce back to win four in a row, that did give people a little scare. Second, they were going against a 61-win Phoenix Suns team, who they had never beat in Phoenix that season (though to be fair, they only played once in Phoenix).


Where this finals was unexpected was almost all because of Utah. To start off with, Utah hadn't even made the playoffs in the last three years, so they were a relatively inexperienced postseason team. Then, in the first round, they were matched-up with a Houston Rocket team that 1) Had a better record then them and thus home-court, 2) Had taken three of four games against them in the regular season, and 3) Had taken the first two games of the series. Somehow, Utah managed to regroup and win the series. However, there was absolutely no one they were going to beat a Dallas Mavericks team with one of the best records in NBA History, right? Right? Well, they didn't even have to go against Dallas! They were luck to go against the No. 8 seed Golden State Warriors, who honestly, only made it to the next round due to having a good match-up, rather than being a good team. If you had asked me before the 2007 playoffs started what the chances were that Utah would be in the conference finals, I would have said about 2%.

1. 1999 Eastern Conference Finals
Match-up: (2) Indiana Pacers (33-17) vs. (8) New York Knicks (27-23)


I guess it's only appropriate that the number one finals on this last came when the NBA last had a lockout. As has been the case for most of this last, what makes the match-up unexpected has usually been just the result of one team making it in that we didn't think would. This match-up is no different. Indiana, as a No. 2 seed, was a favorite to make it to the conference finals. The only thing stopping them were the No. 3 Orlando Magic, who had taken them two of three from them in the regular season. Lucky for them, Orlando bowed out in the first round, leaving Indiana to go against a Philadelphia team that they would sweep.

Whereas Indiana probably had a 95% chance of being in the conference finals, New York probably was at around 1%. For one, they were a No. 8 seed, and only one time in NBA history had a No. 8 beat a No. 1 (I hate thinking about that...). Second, their second round opponent were the Atlanta Hawks, who had taken two out of three from them in the regular season. Aside from that, there really isn't much to say except a No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference Finals was never to be expected.

NBA Awards Review and Opinion II (Sixth, ROY, MVP)

Sixth Man of the Year


Official Results: 1) James Harden, 2) Louis Williams, 3) Jason Terry

How I Would've Voted: 1) James Harden, 2) Louis Williams, 3) Al Harrington

 (Sue Ogrocki / Associated…)

For most of the year, James Harden was the favorite for the Sixth Man of the Year Award. Last week, sportswriters and broadcasters cemented Harden's name in history as he ran away with the award. Though he wasn't unanimously picked for this honor, Harden did come away with 115 of a possible 118 first place votes.

I completely agree with James Harden being named the Sixth Man of the Year. In my opinion, he was the best player who regularly came off the bench this past season (I'm not including Ginobili since he missed his fair share of games). Not only did he post up really good numbers of 16.8 PPG, 4.1 RPG, and 3.7 APG, while playing with the second unit, but he did so with great efficiency. Harden became one of the most difficult players to guard as he proved to be a threat from outside, shooting 39.0% from three, while also being capable of penetrating to the basket, attempting 6 free throws a game while knocking down 84.6% of them. For the season, Harden shot a fantastic 49.1% from the field, and was constantly referred to as the Thunder's best passer. Harden's elevation from being a solid guard to becoming a borderline All Star and offensive demon is why the Thunder ranked second in the league in offense, and had the second best record in the West.

While I do agree with James Harden being the best sixth man, I thought the race was closer than most people felt it was. I want to recognize and give credit to Louis Williams of the Philadelphia 76ers for having a fantastic year. I've always considered Williams as one who's kind of gone under the radar, but this year, with the early success of the Sixers, he kind of started being pushed into the spotlight. While his numbers aren't impressive as Harden (and he's not as good as Harden), he posted very solid line of 14.9 PPG, 2.4 RPG, and 3.5 APG, while playing just 26.3 MPG. In fact, at the All Star break, I had Williams making the Eastern Conference team, while leaving out Harden from the West. This, though, had a lot to do with Philadelphia's blistering start, and the fact that they didn't really have any superstars. Either way, Williams and Harden were both terrific borderline All Stars who were great Sixth Men for their respective teams.

Rookie of the Year


Official Results: 1) Kyrie Irving, 2) Ricky Rubio, 3) Kenneth Faried

How I Would've Voted: 1) Kyrie Irving, 2) Kenneth Faried, 3) Isaiah Thomas

Soobum Im, US Presswire

This was perhaps the easiest award to pick for the 2011-12 season. How does this sound? 18.5 PPG, 3.7 RPG, and 5.4 APG in ONLY 30 minutes a game. And for a rookie, how about a shooting line of .469/.399/.872.  In my mind, Irving is not a star of the future; he's a star now. The only question is going to be just how good this guy will be. I personally had him on my ballot (I think I did at least) for an Eastern Conference All Star this year.

Aside from Irving, I think we can agree that Kenneth Faried had a great year for the Denver Nuggets. I love his energy, and he has continued his reputation from college as an elite rebounder. I think we can all agree that he was one of the best three rookies this year. The question now is what about Ricky Rubio? The Spaniard had a phenomenal, showing himself to be one of the most creative passers in the league. He ranked sixth in the league 8.2 assists per game, and Minnesota was actually 21-20 in games Rubio played. As well, Rubio showed himself to be a great ball hawk, averaging over two steals a game.

What works against Rubio, though, is that aside from his passing ability, he didn't really have much going from him. He was a poor scorer, averaging just over 10 points in 34.2 minutes per game, and he shot a dreadful 35.7% from the field. Despite his strong steal numbers, Rubio also wasn't known as that great of a defensive player. Also, it doesn't help that the guard missed over a third of the season due to injury/ Overall, Rubio's had a good rookie year, but he wasn't good enough and missed too many games for me to put him on my ballot as top 3 rookie.

Aside from Irving. Rubio, and Faried, it was hard to really pick anyone who stood out too much. After thinking hard about it, I finally decided to give my hypothetical third place vote to Isaiah Thomas of the Sacramento Kings. And no, this is not because we're both Washington Huskies. Thomas played in all but one game for the Kings, and managed to average double figures for the measly team. What really solidified Thomas as one of the best rookies was how he ended the season. Thomas worked his way into the starting line-up before the season's halfway point, and as a starter, averaged 14.7 PPG and 5.4 APG, while shooting over 40% from three. Being in the starting five allowed fans to see what Thomas was capable of, and he was able to capture two Rookie of the Month Awards.

Most Valuable Player


Official Results: 1) LeBron James, 2) Kevin Durant, 3) Chris Paul, 4) Kobe Bryant, 5) Tony Parker

How I Would've Voted: Same as above

Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

The voters got it right here. If I had a ballot to vote for MVP, it would have gone in the exact same order as the results.

Now, I would've been fine with either LeBron James or Kevin Durant as MVP, but I think James was the right choice. Some people may say I might be a little bias because as a life-long Sonic fan, I don't want to see a Thunder become MVP. Well, let me just say, I'm not a big fan of James at all. While I do feel resentment towards the Oklahoma City Thunder and its players, LeBron James is perhaps my least favorite player currently in the league. As much as I, or anyone, dislikes James, it's hard to deny that he's a heck of a player.

My reasoning for picking James as MVP simply has to do with the fact that he is easily the best player in the NBA. It's a little bit difficult to define what "most valuable" exactly means, and the definition does kind of vary from person to person, but a basic way of thinking about it is, if you are better, you are more valuable. Now, that's not always true because there are different contexts and situations, but when you're in James' case (meaning best player in the league playing for a team that had the fourth best record in the league), then you're the most valuable.

James led the Miami Heat and was third in the NBA in scoring, averaging about 27 a game. He had the best shooting year of his career, with career highs from the field (.531) and behind the arc (.362). With per-game averages of 7.9 rebounds and 6.2 assists, James was always a triple-double waiting to happen. He excelled on the defensive end as well, and was in contention for Defensive Player of the Year. James also showed himself more capable at taking over at the end of games, at least compared to last season, though how people view James' ability to perform in the clutch will mostly be determined by how far the Heat go in the playoffs. For the regular season, though, James was basically unstoppable, and early on, some people wondered if he was having one of the greatest years ever.

Kevin Durant turned in possibly the finest year of his young career, topping the league in scoring for the third straight year, while leading a Thunder team that held the number one seed out west for most of the year. I don't think anyone doubts that Durant will win an MVP in the future, and is probably James' biggest challenger for  best player in the league.

While it was clear that James and Durant were probably the top two contenders for MVP, it was also pretty clear that Kobe Bryant, Chris Paul, and Tony Parker were in the top 5. I put Parker at 5 because he played a lot less minutes than the other two, and I also felt that if you take Parker out of the Spurs, they still have enough depth to manage for some time. In the case of Bryant vs. Paul, I thought they both led teams that slightly underachieved, but I put Paul third because I felt he had a better year than Bryant.

Seattle Tops Poll for Best Unoccupied Market

RealGM (a great source of basketball rumors and news) has had a poll for the last couple of days asking: Which unoccupied market would be best suited for an NBA team?

Not only does Seattle win by a landslide, but it received more votes than San Jose, Anaheim, Vancouver, Kansas City, and London combined. And hey, nearly doubling Las Vegas isn't too bad either!

NBA Retirees Gettin' Degrees!

Credit: Peter Andrew Bosch, The Miami Herald/AP Photo

I know this is a bit late, but I felt the need to post it since I'm a firm believer in athletes completing their education. If you haven't already heard, around two weeks ago, Shaquille O'Neal received a doctorate in education, and last week, former Head Coach Don Nelson earned his degree from the University of Iowa.

College is supposed to create a path for a career, but if you're one of the best basketball players in the country, completing college becomes less necessary. If you have the talents to make it in the NBA, that becomes your career. As long as you're not an idiot and lose all your money, you should be set for most of your life. Therefore, it's very inspiring to see two people who were at the top of their professions go back to college once their basketball careers were done.

I think there's two lessons that can be extracted from this. From Shaq's case (or should I say Dr. O'Neal), I think we can learn that outside appearances are deceiving. Shaq is one of the greatest basketball players ever, and has a reputation is being kind of a goofball. Yet, he now has a PhD AND graduated with a 3.81 GPA. In Nelly's case, he shows us that it's never too late to go back to school, having gotten his degree 50 years after first attending Iowa.

For more on each of their cases, here are some links:

Shaq: http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/entertainment/2012/05/shaquille-oneal-earns-doctorate-degree/
Don Nelson: http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/sns-rt-bkn-newssx464a7a1-20120509,0,1107133.story

Credit: Charlie Neibergall

Western Conference 2nd Round Predictions

(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (5) Los Angeles Clippers


In this series, we've got a match-up between a team that always makes the playoffs going up against a team that never does. When I say never does, I mean this is the Clippers' second playoff appearance in the last 15 years. When it comes to situations like this, the first team usually wins.

If anyone remembers from my post from before the playoffs began, I had San Antonio winning out West, and their sweep of Utah in the first round only makes me feel better about my claim. They're led by three veterans of the NBA Finals in Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili, all who I believe played like All Stars when they were on the court. What I really love about them, though, is their depth. For a team that is very well filled at the top, you usually don't see so many quality players in the supporting cast like the Spurs have. There are some who may worry that they're shift from an defensive oriented team to an offensive may make them less capable of winning it all, but they're still good at preventing baskets, ranking 10th in the league.

As for the LA Clippers, they have one of the best duos in the league, but they're supporting cast, even if they Chauncey Billups, still doesn't rival that of San Antonio. They're only 18th in the league in defense, and going up against the best offense in the NBA, one has to wonder if they'll be able to get the necessary stops. It doesn't help that they're best player is in his first year with the time, they're second best player is a sophomore, and not a single one of their top seven leading scorer has played with the team for more than two years. Also, Gregg Popovich has proven himself a great coach, while there's been some questions about Del Negro.

I always say that it's the superstars who carry the team in the playoffs. The best player in this series is Chris Paul, but unfortunately, he's matched up with Parker, who's having one of his best seasons ever. The LA Clippers are a good team, but in way too many areas, they're outmatched by the Spurs. They'll probably do better in the future, but this is just not their year.

Prediction: San Antonio in 5


(2) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (3) Los Angeles Lakers

To start off, I want to make this clear that I can safely say the Oklahoma City Thunder are a better team. However, great teams don't win championships year after year because they face match-ups that might not suit them well.

The big problem with Oklahoma City is their lack of an offensive post player down low. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are two of the best scorers in basketball, but they can't provide the same dominance, efficiency, and consistency that a 7-footer near the basket can. I don't doubt that Westbrook will be able to have a good series, but my question is with Durant. Back in 2010, when these two teams faced off in the first round, Durant struggled against the physical defense of a player formerly known as Ron Artest. Durant has grown and matured into one of the best players in the NBA since then, but one thing to notice in the three meetings between LA and OKC (OKC won two of them) is that Durant's field goal percentage dropped from the 50s to the 40s and then to the 30s. I'm not sure if he's figured out World Peace yet.

In the Lakers case, they have what championship teams need, and that's two very talented bigs in Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol (oh, and there's Kobe Bryant too). What I think will decide the series is how well Pau Gasol plays. The fact is, in the last three playoff series, Gasol has been less than impressive. Not including his breakout Game 7, in the series against Denver, he averaged 11.2 points on 41% shooting. That's simply not going to cut it. When the LA Lakers last played OKC in the playoffs, Gasol averaged 18.0 PPG, 12.2 RPG, 3.7 APG, and 53.2% shooting from the field. That's the type of production he's going to need in order for the LA Lakers to move on.

I think Durant may struggle with World Peace early on, but I think when it comes down to it, Durant will be able to prevail. Thabo Sefolosha has given Bryant a hard time, but I think Bryant has looked just as good in the playoffs in the clutch as he's ever has. As I said, if Gasol plays well, the Lakers will win, but I just think the athleticism of Ibaka, the toughness of Perkins, or the smarts of Collison will just be too much for him. Also, after being elbowed by World Peace, I expect James Harden to have a big series.

Prediction: Oklahoma City in 6


Here are my revised predictions for the rest of the playoffs:

Conference Finals
Miami def. Boston in 7
San Antonio def. Oklahoma City in 7

NBA Finals
Miami def. San Antonio in 6

Eastern Conference 2nd Round Predictions

One thing I've never liked about the NBA Playoffs is when they would have the next round begin before the current round has completely finished. Today, the Philadelphia 76ers play the Boston Celtics in the first game of the second round, despite the fact that the LA Clippers-Memphis series and the Denver-LA Lakers (who play tonight) series have yet to conclude. By the way, isn't only appropriate that the two series going to a 7th game are the Los Angeles teams? Hollywood drama right there! Anyways, with neither of the Western Conference Semi-Finals match-up yet to be decided, but both of the Eastern Conference one's figured out, here are my Eastern Conference 2nd Round Predictions.

(4) Boston Celtics vs. (8) Philadelphia 76ers


In the last two years, the team that I had predicted to win the NBA Championship lost in the second round. My winner for this year couldn't even make it past the first. For the fifth time in NBA history, a No. 8 vanquished a No. 1 in the first round.  With all due respect to Philly though, this kind of has an asterisk feel to it. Chicago lost their MVP in Game One, and then arguably their best defensive player later in the series.

During the regular season, the Sixers won two of the three meetings, and each of the three meeting ended with a double digit victory. However, I think one could argue that Boston has been better than they have been at any point in the season. They've shown the ability to blow-out a formidable Hawk team, as they did in Game 4, but also win in close games, as they did in Games 3 and 6. Not a single time in the series did Atlanta, who averaged 96.6 points in the regular season, even reach the 90 point mark. Kevin Garnett is playing like the Garnett of old, having averaged 18.7 PPG and 10.5 RPG during the first round, and Rajon Rondo is put up bona fide star numbers of 16.8 PPG and 11.8 APG.

It's really hard to get a grasp for Philadelphia based on the first round alone, since their opponent was hit hard by injuries. They had five different players average double figures in scoring, but aside from Jrue Holiday's 18.2 PPG, their second highest scorer was Lou Williams with 12.8. This Sixers team is one filled with depth and talent. Doug Collins has these guys playing well together, but in the playoffs, it's the stars' time to shine.

Boston is much better than a depleted Chicago team, and I don't see anyone on the Sixers team being able to carry the team on their back late in the game. In fact, the three best player in this series all play with Boston Celtics. Philadelphia is a good team, and they've shown the ability to beat Boston before, but they just don't have the star power to match-up against a hot Boston team.

Prediction: Boston in 5


(2) Miami Heat vs. (3) Indiana Pacers


Aside from Indiana dropping Game 1 to Orlando, both of these teams played around where I thought they'd play. Miami overwhelmed New York, and Orlando stood no chance against Indiana. During the regular season, Miami won three of four, blowing Indiana out the first two games.

What we have here are two teams built in completely different ways. Indiana is built on depth and having several solid to good players. Miami is built around their Big Three, with a bunch of players filling supporting role. In my studies, I've found that the latter is what typically tends to prevail in the playoffs. In the first round, the three of the leading scorers for Indiana were Danny Granger, Roy Hibbert, and George Hill. Against the Heat, those guys will be matched-up with, respectively, LeBron James, Chris Bosh, and Dwayne Wade. I think any knowledgeable basketball fan would take each of the Heat's three over the Pacer's threes. In a postseason about stars, Miami has a huge edge.

If Indiana wants to win this series, they're really going to have to see a revival from their free agent acquisition, David West. West has played noticeably better in the playoffs than he did in the regular season, and his match-up against Udonis Haslem is one that is actually favorable to Indiana. He'll need to look like the All-Star of old for Miami to have a chance. Even if he does, Indiana still won't have enough to win. The Pacers are going to need HUGE production from their role players, whether that by Darren Collison, Leandro Barbosa, or Tyler Hasbrough. If one or two of those three really step it up, combined with monster performances by West, and assuming Granger and Hill don't drop off too much against the defense of James and Wade, then maybe Indiana has a chance.

Prediction: Miami in 5

NBA Awards Review and Opinion I (COY, DPOY, MIP)

As of the time I'm writing this, most of the awards for the 2012 NBA season have already been given out. I wanted to give my opinions for the awards before they were handed out, but unfortunately, I just never got around to it. The MVP and ROY are the only awards left to be handed out, so I'll give my thoughts on that, but I'll also take a lot back to see where I think the voters went wrong, and where they went right.

Coach of the Year


Official Results: 1) Gregg Popovich, 2) Tom Thibodeau, 3) Frank Vogel

How I Would've Voted: 1) Gregg Popovich, 2) Tom Thibodeau, 3) Tyrone Corbin

I'm a huge Phil Jackson, so every year I always try to find a way to get him into my top-3 for COY. Now that he's retired, I was actually able to work on my Coach of the Year ballot with a little less bias then I usually do.

I got to be completely honest. I hate the Coach of the Year Award. I may be being a little bit extreme, but I just find it a little bit pointless. For instance, I think we can all agree that Phil Jackson is the greatest coach in NBA history, and yet he only snagged on COY, and it took a record breaking season for him to do that! Jerry Sloan is one of the most respected coaches ever, and he never managed to win the award in his 20+ year career. Also, take a look at what's happened to some of the coaches who have won the award in recent years.

2005: Mike D'Antonio (PHX)-After leaving Phoenix in 2008, had only one winning season in four years with New York.
2006: Avery Johnson (DAL)-Fired two years later after a first round defeat in back-to-back years.
2007: Sam Mitchell (TOR)-Fired 17 team games into the 2008-09 season after the Raptors started 8-9.
2008: Byron Scott (NOH)-Fired 9 games into the 2009-10 season after New Orleans started 3-6.
2009: Mike Brown (CLE)-Fired after the very next season after Cleveland failed to make the Finals for the second straight year.

For me, I just don't see the Coach of the Year Award as doing much good...except for having been an omen for a future pink slip.

Anyways, I think it's best to actually start discussing the results of the 2012 COY voting. I feel it's never that easy to select who did the best job coaching in a particular year, because it all depends on the criteria of the voter. As kind of a guideline to help me, I narrowed the candidates for Coach of the Year based on three criteria: 1) Did their team have a winning record, 2) Did their team have a better winning percentage than the year before, and 3) Did their team surpass preseason expectations? (I made season projections for every team before the year started)

Now of course, those guidelines are far from perfect. There's only so much a team can do if a team is completely devoid of talent, free agency can always effect how a team does from one season to another more than a coach can, and injuries, suspensions, and other events of adversity can always mess with a team during the season. However, for this particularly season, there were six coaches that met my criteria, and I think all of them were legitimate candidates. They were Tom Thibodeau, Frank Vogel, Larry Drew, Gregg Popovich, Lionel Hollins, and Tyrone Corbin.

With my list of nominees narrowed down, I had to ask myself an important question: Of those coaches, which ones actually played a big role in their team exceeding their expectation? In other words, which one do I think isn't going to be looking for a new job in a couple years because their team got off to a bad start. This kind of becomes a question of legitimacy. Which coach actually shaped and molded their teams to what they are, rather than just ride the coattails of great player addition or improvement? Of course, of the six coaches I listed, Gregg Popovich is the one we all know has proven himself to be a great leader. Therefore, he was my pick for a safe Coach of the Year. The voters and I each had Thibodeau as second, but we differed for third. I went with Corbin because I had expected Utah to be in the basement of the west, but I have no problem with Frank Vogel being third at all.

Defensive Player of the Year


Official Results: 1) Tyson Chandler, 2) Serge Ibaka, 3) Dwight Howard

How I Would've Voted: 1) Dwight Howard, 2) Tyson Chandler, 3) Serge Ibaka

I think one thing I can take from this is that with me, there is a consensus among who the top three defensive players are in the NBA. The only question is how are they ordered. For me, it really came down to Tyson Chandler and Dwight Howard.

Why Tyson Chandler? With the injuries and offensive woes the Knicks have dealt with the entire year, the only reason they managed to stay afloat was because of their defense. Their defense?!?! Believe it or not, New York actually was the fifth best defensive team in the entire NBA during the 2012 season. With the addition of Chandler, a team that had spent the last years as one of the worst teams at stopping their opponents from scoring all of the sudden became one of the best. Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire weren't able to complete their roles as the offensive forces, but Chandler did his one the other end of the basket.

Why Dwight Howard? Of course stats aren't everything, but they do mean something. With that said, Howard averaged the most rebounds per game of anybody in the league, and was one of the NBA's best shot-blocker. While Orlando did drop from being a top-3 defensive team each of the past three seasons to being 12th this season, it wouldn't be fair to pin the blame on Howard, since defense is very much a team thing. Anyways, Howard EASILY won the DPOY award in each of the last three years, so even if he wasn't as good defensively as he's been in the past, I still think he'd be the best.

I think we have to ask ourselves that if we could pick anyone in the NBA to anchor our defense, who would it be, most of us would say Howard. I think after three straight years of Howard easily winning the award, people were looking for change. It's really important not to have voter fatigue and not vote for someone just because we're tired of seeing the same reason. I kind of felt that's what people may have done. Howard's attitude throughout the entire season also didn't help the cause. One thing that pushed me in Howard's favor was this: according the 82games.com, the New York Knicks, per 48 minutes, gave up 1.2 less points when Chandler was on the court than when he was off it. How about Howard? A whopping 6.8 less!

As for Ibaka, I hope people don't think that I refused to recognize his talents just because he plays for the Oklahoma City Thunder. He is an amazing defender and his shot blocking numbers this year were unmatched. However, the correlation that exists between shot blocking and winning, according to my research, is almost non-existent. Aside from shot blocking, Ibaka really hasn't made a name for himself defensively in the same way Howard and Chandler have.

Most Improved Player


Official Results: 1) Ryan Anderson, 2) Ersan Ilyasova, 3) Nikola Pekovic


How I Would've Voted: 1) Nikola Pekovic, 2) Jeremy Lin, 3) Ersan Ilyasova


I think that the Most Improved Player Award is easily the most difficult one to pick. Its' really difficult to compare the improvement of one player to another, how much a player has improved, and whether a player actually improved or were just given a chance. I think evidence of the challenge of picking an MIP winner can be seen in the fact that 6 different players got at least 10 first place votes, and 19 (!!!) players got at least one first place vote.

First of all, let me explain why I think Ryan Anderson should not have even been considered for MIP. To put it simply, he didn't really improve. Sure, his numbers all went up and he was in All-Star consideration, but this was because he went from the bench to the starting five in 2012, and played in 10 more minutes per game. If we look at his shooting numbers, Anderson went from .430/.393/.812 in 2011 to .439/.393/.877 this season. His shooting hardly changed aside from his free throws, and even factoring his free throws, the increase could have been due to variation as a a result of sampling. If we want to look at the Pts/Rebs/Assts/Stls/Blks line from a per-36 minute perspective, we'll see that he went from 17.2/8.0/1.3/0.8/1.0 in 2011 to 18.0/8.6/1.0/0.9/0.5 in 2012. His numbers remained fairly constant in those categories, and in fact dropped in three out of the five. Therefore, I'm going to conclude that Anderson didn't really improve, but was just given a chance.

A person who I feel did improve (that's kind of obvious considering I'm awarding him MIP) was Minnesota's Nikola Pekovic. Last year, Pekovic was basically a nobody. To be honest, I had absolutely no clue who this guy was at the beginning of the season. He came off the bench and provided only about 14 minutes a game, averaging 5.5 points and 3.0 rebounds. This year, Pekovic emerged as the starting center for Minnesota and an important contributor. He improved in just about every category in the box score. For example, on a per-36 basis, his scoring went up from 14.6 to 18.5 and his rebounding increased from 7.8 to 9.5. As well, his turnovers dropped from 3.7 to 2.5 and more impressive, his fouls plummeted from 7.3 to 2.8. His field goal percentage was already a good 51.7% last year, but that noticeably increased to 56.4%  this year, good enough for second in the league. In a game against the Los Angeles in January, after Pekovic was sent to the bench, Laker Center Andrew Bynum said, "Thank God they took Pekovic out of the game." Would anyone have been saying that last year?

Finally, I want to talk about Jeremy Lin, which is a much debated candidate. There's two things going against him: 1) he only played in 35 games this entire season, and 2) some people say he didn't improve, but was rather just given an opportunity. In addressing the first part, I personally have to say I don't care that he didn't play in 31 games. Unlike an award like MVP, the Most Improved Player Award is for the one who improved the most, even if he couldn't make it the entire season. As for some people saying that he was always good but didn't get a chance, I'd have to disagree with that too. Even though Lin hardly played in the 2010-11 season, he did play over 200 minutes, which is enough to give us kind of a taste of who he was. For instance, in 2011, Lin shot just 38.9% from the field, and only attempted five three-pointers in 285 minutes. This year, Lin shot 44.6% from the field, and increased his three-point attempt rate by about four five time, converting on 32% of them. On a per-36 minute rate, Lin increased his assists from 5.3 to 8.3, and doubled his scoring rate from 9.6 to 19.6! And be honest, do you think Lin in his rookie year could have outplayed Kobe Bryant?

Why We Hate Howard Schultz

Ever since the Sonics left Seattle, I've boycotted Starbucks and have refused to get anything from there. At times, though, I've wondered if I've been a little over dramatic. I've told people about how bad of a person Schultz is, but could he really be that bad just because he sold a basketball team?

Well, my hatred was justified. I was perusing the Seattle PI, and they came upon this article from Deadspin, written by a former employee in the Sonic organization. It's a little lengthy, but very well worth the read. It gives a behind the scene looks at what happened during those final Sonic years, and shows the character of Schultz.

http://deadspin.com/5907371/howard-schultz-gave-out-350-starbucks-gift-cards-an-insiders-notes-on-the-shabby-death-of-the-seattle-supersonics