.610+ winning percentage (1.00)
Top half in Offensive Rating (.92)
Top 10 in Defensive Rating (.92)
Top 20 in Slowest Pace (.85)
Top 10 in Attendance (.92)
Top 10 in FG% (.85)
Top half in Total Rebounds (.92)
Top half in Blocks (.77)
2+ All-Stars (.77)
Top 10 Oldest Teams (.92)
Elite Offensive Post Player (.92)
These are characteristics that I found most NBA championship teams since the 1998-99 season have had. The reason I started with the 1999 season was because Chicago had three-peated before that, and considering how special of a player Michael Jordan is, I felt it was have gone with the trend I have above. The number I have in parenthesis corresponds to the percentage of the time the team that won the championship had that characteristic. For instance. .92 for top 10 in Defensive Rating meant that 92% of the champions in the last 13 years (that means all but one) had one of the ten best defenses in the league.
Using the criteria above, I came up with a formula to evaluate which team is most like a championship team. The way I did this was assigning a weighted point for each criteria a team met. When I say weight point, I mean that a team that had was top 10 in Offensive Rating got .92 points for that, whereas if they were top 10 in FG%, they got just .85 points for that. After adding up each team's points, I divided by the total number of points (9.77), and got a percentage.
Now, this isn't to be taken to seriously. This is just based off of past trends of the NBA champions since 1999. This is NOT who the best team in the league is and this is NOT necessarily who I think will win the championship. The fact of the matter is that being good in the regular season is different from being good in the playoffs. For instance, run-and-gun offense doesn't translate as well into the postseason, and bigs do matter a lot more. Match-ups are also an essential part of postseason success. As a result, what this should be taken as is a guide to see who which teams are more built to endure the struggles of the NBA playoffs.
16. New York Knicks (18.8%)
For a team that many people thought could challenge in the East, New York just doesn't have what it takes to be a championship team. They're superstar big, Amare Stoudemire, had a pretty bad year, leaving Carmelo Anthony as the only true star on this team. New York wasn't the offensive team a lot of people expected them to be, and the only two categories the hit were defense and attendance.
T14. Atlanta Hawks (27.5%)
Year and year out, the Hawks always seem to have the talent to make a run, but they never do. They've got really talented players in Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, and a currently out Al Horford. Unfortunately, none of them are whom I would consider elite. What they do have to their advantage though is that they're an experienced team that's been together a while, and they're good on the defensive end.
T14. Denver Nuggets (27.5%)
Denver has a lot of good talent, ranging from their top player Ty Lawson, to the veteran Al Harrington, to the young Kenneth Faried. Unfortunately, like Atlanta, they lack a truly elite player. Of course, under the leadership of former-Sonic coach George Karl (who has now gone 20 straight years without a losing season), Denver has one of the league's top offenses, which is about the only thing they've got working for them.
13. Philadelphia 76ers (35.4%)
Philadelphia kind of resembles Denver in that they're a star-less team with a great amount of talent. Whereas Denver managed to excel based off their excellent offense, Philadelphia's teamwork resulted in the league's 3rd best defense. The saying goes defense wins championships, but without much of an offense, championships are hard to come by.
12. Memphis Grizzlies (36.2%)
As good as Memphis has been this season, they're just not built for the long run. With Zach Randolph out for an extended period of time, it was the Memphis defense that kept them in the hunt. Rudy Gay and Marc Gasol are two good players, but they could only take the offense so far. If Randolph emerges back into himself of last playoffs, Memphis could possibly make a run.
11. Boston Celtics (52.0%)
Boston is a good, experienced defensive-oriented team. They've still got their big guns in Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce, and Kevin Garnett, however, none of them are exactly at the Kobe/LeBron level. Talent, experience, and defense are all needed to make a run at the trophy, however, when you're offense is 4th worst in the league, you're probably not getting very far.
T9. Utah Jazz (53.5%)
The Utah Jazz defied expectations just by making the playoffs in their first full post-Sloan and post-Deron year. Due to the effectiveness of their two post players, Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap, the team ended up being the 6th best offensive team in the league. Adding to that, they were third in rebounds and fourth in blocks, though only 19th in overall defense. Utah is solid all around, but they're a bit too young to make a huge splash.
T9. Oklahoma City Thunder (53.5%)
Here's the biggest surprise! We all know OKC is a great, talented team and they've been for a while the favorites out west, but they do have some big issues to address. They severely lack a dominant interior player on the offensive end, they're defense is good but not excellent, and they still might be a little too young. They've got two of the best players in the league, but what happens when they're shots aren't falling?
8. Indiana Pacers (55.1%)
Anyone surprised by this one? I kind of am. Indiana is actually only one of four teams to hit the offensive (7th) and defensive (9th) criteria. They're a very well-balanced team, with seven different guys averaging at least 9 points a game. What hurts them most though is their low field goal percentage (they excel at 3's and getting to the line) and their lack of a guy who can take over a game.
7. Orlando Magic (55.8%)
I'm not sure how to talk about this since Dwight Howard isn't going to be playing in the postseason. The team has a 55.8% partly due to their offense, rebounding, and having an offensive post player, all of which is negated by Howard's absence. If we don't include those three categories, then Orlando's rating goes down to 27.5%, putting them only above New York.
6. San Antonio Spurs (56.6%)
Despite having won the west last season, San Antonio wasn't a sexy pick to make it to the NBA Finals. I say ditto for this season. They're top 10 in both offense and defense, but they do have two things working against them. One is that, even with the magnificent season Tony Parker is having, they don't really have that superstar that can carry them in tight games. Also, this is a much younger team then the Spur teams that have won championships in the past.
5. LA Clippers (62.9%)
A big reason the Clippers are this high is due to their duo of Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. Those two led the Clippers to the fourth best offense in the league, and a top ten in FG%. Paul had an MVP-type season and showed himself capable of carrying the team on his back, whether through scoring or distributing. Griffin, though he isn't super polished, is an All-Star big man who gives the Clips a threat down low.
4. Dallas Mavericks (63.7%)
Interestingly enough, I think Dallas actually may have had a higher score than they did last year. Dallas is definitely not the team they were last year, and have been pretty average this year. Their biggest issue was that their offense plummeted, going from 8th in the league to 22nd. However, even with the departure of Tyson Chandler, Dallas didn't lose anything on the defensive end, remaining at 8th. Add a team with a lot of experience and Dirk Nowitzki, and you've got a team that shouldn't be counted out just yet.
3. Miami Heat (81.1%)
Miami was who I picked to win it all at the beginning of the year, and though they didn't take the league by storm, they're still one of the favorites. They've got two of the best players in the league in LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, they're tremendous on the defensive end, and they've got tons of veteran players. What prevents Miami from being higher is their play down low. They're not an elite rebounding team (LeBron leads them in RPG) and I'm still concerned about Chris Bosh's ability to dominate a game.
2. Chicago Bulls (81.8%)
Just edging out Miami, both in the standings and this list, are the Chicago Bulls. Like Miami, Chicago is skilled on both sides of the ball, ranking in the top 5 in both Offensive and Defensive Rating. Also like Miami, Chicago's ability score down low scares me a little. I really like Carlos Boozer, who's averaging 15 points and 53% from the field, but at 6'9, he doesn't command the same presence as an Andrew Bynum or Dwight Howard would.
1. LA Lakers (90.5%)
Despite their record, their struggles, and their controversies, there's a reason the Lakers are always one of the favorites to win the championship. They were good, but not great, in the regular season, but they're definitely a team built for the playoffs. They've gone deep many years before, they've got a star in Kobe Bryant, they've got a post game in Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, their fan base is great, etc. There was only one category they didn't hit: Defensive Rating. Can they do what only one team in the last 13 years has done, and win the championship with a non-top 10 rating? (By the one, that one team was their 2001 counterparts, who only lost once in the playoffs)
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