Saturday, April 21, 2012

How would Gary Payton do in a one-on-one tournament?

I always find myself reading the Bleacher Report every day, and currently, they are presenting a series of articles where they have a 64-man tournaments pitting both NBA legends of the past, and current NBA players. They began with an all encompassing 64-man tournament, and then had tournaments based on positions. Several weeks ago, they featured the Legends vs. Current player tournament for the point guard position. Here's the link for it:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1115159-64-one-on-one-nba-legends-vs-current-stars-march-madness-tourney-pg-edition

The Seattle SuperSonics have a few players representing here, such as Lenny Wilkens, Dennis Johnson, but notably, Gary Payton. That's where I want to focus. Payton is given a 6th seed in the South Division, and that's fair enough. The writer of this article, Peter Emerick, has Payton beating Jarrett Jack in the 1st round, but where I want to start my discussion is in the second round, where Payton is matched-up against Steve Nash.

The whole Steve Nash vs. Gary Payton thing is something that I've actually thought of a lot in the past. When it comes to who was the greatest player, I think cases could be made either way, but for the context of this tournament, we're talking about how they would fare against each other, one-on-one.

Emerick has Payton beating Nash by a score of 25-21, and describes their pick-up game as "a seriously physical matchup, with both players battling it out for the longevity of the game." First of all, I don't really see Nash as much of a physical player. Also, in a five-on-five game, I could see these two battling it out, but not so much in a one-on-one setting.

Let's start off with considering how  these two would fare when Payton has the ball. Payton was a little bit bigger than most point guards, and a result, one of the most notable parts of his game was being able to dominate defenders in the post. Payton stands at 6'4, 180 lbs, given him a one-inch advantage over Nash. That one-inch advantage may not seem like a lot, but it means tons when considering this: Steve Nash can't play defense!!! And it wasn't just Payton's size that gave him an advantage in the post, but if you've ever seen tape, he had tremendous footwork. Add in Payton's decent, though definitely not great, shooting abilities, and there is no way Nash can stop Payton. Payton scores almost every time. The only way Payton wouldn't be able to terrorize Nash with the ball is if he got to cocky and started hoisting up long jumpers, which actually isn't out of the question.

Moving on, let's examine how Payton would do defending Nash. I think it's safe to say that Payton is one of the greatest defensive guards ever, and Nash is one of the greatest offensive guards ever. However, in Nash's case, much of his offensive threat comes from his ability to distribute the ball. The 13 points he's averaging this season don't mean much without the 11 assists he's getting in a little over 30 minutes per game. Nash makes his teammates better, but unfortunately, in this game, he has none. Another think we all know of Nash is that he's a phenomenal shooter. He's currently averaging for the season 54% from the field, 41% from the stripe, and 89% from the line. Taking his lack of teammates into account, combined with his great shooting, what exactly does that mean for a one-on-one game? Well, Nash is a player very capable of creating his own shots, but a lot of this is through his masterful use of screens. Take away players screening for him (and also he's not too quick at this age), and Nash's ability to conjure up a good shot is severely limited. Adding to that, his lack of teammates means that defenders don't have too worry about whether he's going to drive, pass, or shoot. His creativity is now greatly stalled. With no teammates to work with, and with the best defensive point guard in NBA history guarding him, Nash is going to have a hand right in his grill for 99% of his shots. Now, never count on one of the greatest shooters the NBA has ever seen, but hot shooting can only go you so far.

With that said, how do I think the game would end? In the best case scenario for Payton, he scores 25 before Nash can even get into double digits (Remember, according to the rules Emerick set, player keeps gets the ball if they make the shot). For Nash, if Payton relies to much on his outside shot than his post-up game, and Nash gets on a hot streak, then Nash might be able to just squeak out a win. As even as both players may be in the course of NBA history, in a one-on-one game, I'd give it to Payton, by a score of maybe 25-8.

In the Sweet Sixteen, Emerick has Payton losing to Kemba Walker, 19-25. While upsets are nice, I think this kind of stretches. Walker gives up three inches and eight pounds, so there's no way a rookie like him could guard a Payton in his prime in the post. Second, Walker is shooting 37% from the field and 32% from three. If he shoots that badly against the average NBA defense, just imagine how much he would struggle against a former Defensive Player of the Year. Gary Payton wins 9 times out of 10.

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