Sonicsgate
On Friday, the hit (at least among Seattle basketball fans) documentary about the Seattle SuperSonics being stolen from Seattle made its debut on national television. While I didn't watch it, I have watched it before, and it truly is an informative and important video in Sonics history. It airs again tonight at 7 PM on CNBC, and I really recommend watching it, but for those who can't catch, here's a link to the director's cut on the sonicsgate website.
http://sonicsgate.org/movie/
Sacramento Arena Deal
Well, for those hoping that Seattle might get a new NBA team via the Kings, things are kind of looking up. Published on Saturday, here's news directly from the Sacramento Bees saying that little progress has been made in getting an arena deal for the Kings. Personally, I hope Sacramento and the Kings eventually work something out, because I don't want them to go through what Seattle had to go through only a few years ago.
http://www.sacbee.com/2012/04/28/4449510/city-may-get-new-arena-but-it.html
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks
When I came back from dinner last night, I looked on my computer and saw that Game 1 between OKC and Dallas was tied 96-96. I expected OKC to win the series, but seeing Dallas possibly taking Game 1 and stealing home-court advantage got my hopes up. Unfortunately, Durant made the game-winning shot with 1.5 seconds to go, and OKC ends up the winner. Bummer.
http://espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=320428025
Sunday, April 29, 2012
Friday, April 27, 2012
2012 NBA Playoff Predictions
Playoffs are tomorrow! Here are my take on the first-round match-ups. I have a tendency to want to be detailed and analyze every aspect of each series, but I'll try to keep things brief here.
Eastern Conference
(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (8) Philadelphia 76ers
There was a time when these two teams were both fighting for the top spot in the east. That was a very long time ago. Since Philadelphia's first match-up with Miami, they've gone 19-25, which would only account for a .432 winning percentage. Though they've played well as a team and have a good coach in Doug Collins and two pretty good players in Andre Iguodala and Lou Williams, they're about ready to get run over by the Bulls.
Prediction: Chicago in 4
(4) Boston Celtics vs. (5) Atlanta Hawks
Though Boston is the upper seed here, Atlanta will get home-court advantage due to winning one more game. Overall, I still think Boston is the better team here. They got off to a pretty slow start, but ever since a 5-game losing streak at the end of February, they've been 22-10 (.688). Whether or not Al Horford can play could be a tipping point in the series, but I think the match-up to watch will be Kevin Garnett vs. Josh Smith. Both teams lack superstars and in my opinion, those two have been each team's two best players. If Garnett can find his old self, this series is Boston's for the taking.
Prediction: Boston in 6
(3) Indiana Pacers vs. (6) Orlando Magic
The Orlando Magic are 4-8 without Dwight Howard this season. They don't really have any other really good players aside from Ryan Anderson, but even then, I don't think Anderson can carry the team on his back. I'm thinking that people should be getting out the broom sticks.
Prediction: Indiana in 6
(2) Miami Heat vs. (7) New York Knicks
I think this is probably the most exciting first-round playoff series out east. We've got a star-studded line-up, and I feel this series could result in a surprising upset for New York, or a clean sweep by Miami. On the one hand, New York is 18-6 (.750) ever since Mike Woodson took over, and Carmelo Anthony has seemed to found himself. They've got the DPOY favorite in Tyson Chandler who stopped Miami in the Finals last year, and Amare Stoudemire is still capable of busting loose. On the other hand, maybe it's time for New York to float back to Earth and I'm still a little fearful of how Anthony and Stoudemire will co-exist on the offensive end, especially against a great Miami defense.
Prediction: Miami in 5
Western Conference
(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (8) Utah Jazz
In the Utah Jazz, San Antonio is getting a match-up against a young eighth seed with a dominant post player, similar to their match-up against Memphis last year. However, that's about where the comparisons stop. Unlike last year, San Antonio ended the season on a roll, winning their last 10 in a row. Both teams have very strong frontcourts, and I especially like the Tim Duncan-Al Jefferson match-up, but in the backcourt, the Spurs hold a big advantage. I feel like Utah has overachieved a bit this season, and considering San Antonio beat them three times this season (the only loss was when Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Duncan all sat), this match-up should be a cinch.
Prediction: San Antonio in 5
(4) Memphis Grizzlies vs. (5) Los Angeles Clippers
This could possibly be my favorite match-up of the first round, as I believe both teams are capable of winning. Memphis has been one of the hottest teams coming down the stretch, winning their last six in a row and eight of their last ten. They were solid all season without Zach Randolph, and if he can return back to All-Star form, Memphis could be a dark horse to make a deep run. However, the playoffs are the time for stars to shine, and the two best players in this series both belong to Los Angeles. Chris Paul has reaffirmed his place as the best point guard this season, and I think he'll lead the Clippers to victory in a really close series.
Prediction: LA Clippers in 7
(3) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (6) Denver Nuggets
I have to admit, that Denver has very much impressed me. At the beginning of the season, I didn't expect them to even have a winning record, and as the season was winding down, I kept expecting Phoenix to take their spot in the playoffs. Yet, they make it in, with a No. 6 seed nevertheless. Denver ended the season playing great basketball, and have a lot of weapons at their disposal. Unfortunately, they have the same problem they did last season, which was who was going to step up in crunch time? That's why, despite their hot finish last season, they still lost to OKC in 5, and why this time, despite their hot finish, they'll lose to the Lakers. Los Angeles has just too much talent for Denver too handle, though I think the series will be much closer than people think, because all four regular season match-ups between the two teams were decided by single digits.
Prediction: LA Lakers in 6
(2) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (7) Dallas Mavericks
A lot of people think Oklahoma City will be the Western Conference champions, and there's a saying that goes to be the champion, you've got to beat the champion. OKC is going to get that opportunity in the very first round in what should be a fun rematch of last year's Western Conference Finals. While Dallas is definitely worse than they were last year, I think they're still a pretty strong team. After a slow start, Dirk Nowitzki is back to his old form, and Dallas has several solid (though not great) veterans in Jason Terry, Shawn Marion, Jason Kidd, and Vince Carter. If Nowitzki can heat up again, there's no reason to think Dallas can't pull off the upset, but the problem is, I don't expect Nowitzki to play like he did last year. Oklahoma City is just way too good and way too fast, and Dallas is going to go back to losing in the first round like they did in pre-championship days.
Prediction: Oklahoma City in 5
I usually like to predict the later rounds as well, but I'm not going to analyze them since if I get them wrong, then they become pointless.
Second Round
Chicago def. Boston in 7
Miami def. Indiana in 5
San Antonio def. LA Clippers in 5
Oklahoma City def. LA Lakers in 6
Conference Finals
Chicago def. Miami in 7
San Antonio def. Oklahoma City in 7
NBA Finals
Chicago def. San Antonio in 6
Eastern Conference
(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (8) Philadelphia 76ers
There was a time when these two teams were both fighting for the top spot in the east. That was a very long time ago. Since Philadelphia's first match-up with Miami, they've gone 19-25, which would only account for a .432 winning percentage. Though they've played well as a team and have a good coach in Doug Collins and two pretty good players in Andre Iguodala and Lou Williams, they're about ready to get run over by the Bulls.
Prediction: Chicago in 4
(4) Boston Celtics vs. (5) Atlanta Hawks
Though Boston is the upper seed here, Atlanta will get home-court advantage due to winning one more game. Overall, I still think Boston is the better team here. They got off to a pretty slow start, but ever since a 5-game losing streak at the end of February, they've been 22-10 (.688). Whether or not Al Horford can play could be a tipping point in the series, but I think the match-up to watch will be Kevin Garnett vs. Josh Smith. Both teams lack superstars and in my opinion, those two have been each team's two best players. If Garnett can find his old self, this series is Boston's for the taking.
Prediction: Boston in 6
(3) Indiana Pacers vs. (6) Orlando Magic
The Orlando Magic are 4-8 without Dwight Howard this season. They don't really have any other really good players aside from Ryan Anderson, but even then, I don't think Anderson can carry the team on his back. I'm thinking that people should be getting out the broom sticks.
Prediction: Indiana in 6
(2) Miami Heat vs. (7) New York Knicks
I think this is probably the most exciting first-round playoff series out east. We've got a star-studded line-up, and I feel this series could result in a surprising upset for New York, or a clean sweep by Miami. On the one hand, New York is 18-6 (.750) ever since Mike Woodson took over, and Carmelo Anthony has seemed to found himself. They've got the DPOY favorite in Tyson Chandler who stopped Miami in the Finals last year, and Amare Stoudemire is still capable of busting loose. On the other hand, maybe it's time for New York to float back to Earth and I'm still a little fearful of how Anthony and Stoudemire will co-exist on the offensive end, especially against a great Miami defense.
Prediction: Miami in 5
Western Conference
(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (8) Utah Jazz
In the Utah Jazz, San Antonio is getting a match-up against a young eighth seed with a dominant post player, similar to their match-up against Memphis last year. However, that's about where the comparisons stop. Unlike last year, San Antonio ended the season on a roll, winning their last 10 in a row. Both teams have very strong frontcourts, and I especially like the Tim Duncan-Al Jefferson match-up, but in the backcourt, the Spurs hold a big advantage. I feel like Utah has overachieved a bit this season, and considering San Antonio beat them three times this season (the only loss was when Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Duncan all sat), this match-up should be a cinch.
Prediction: San Antonio in 5
(4) Memphis Grizzlies vs. (5) Los Angeles Clippers
This could possibly be my favorite match-up of the first round, as I believe both teams are capable of winning. Memphis has been one of the hottest teams coming down the stretch, winning their last six in a row and eight of their last ten. They were solid all season without Zach Randolph, and if he can return back to All-Star form, Memphis could be a dark horse to make a deep run. However, the playoffs are the time for stars to shine, and the two best players in this series both belong to Los Angeles. Chris Paul has reaffirmed his place as the best point guard this season, and I think he'll lead the Clippers to victory in a really close series.
Prediction: LA Clippers in 7
(3) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (6) Denver Nuggets
I have to admit, that Denver has very much impressed me. At the beginning of the season, I didn't expect them to even have a winning record, and as the season was winding down, I kept expecting Phoenix to take their spot in the playoffs. Yet, they make it in, with a No. 6 seed nevertheless. Denver ended the season playing great basketball, and have a lot of weapons at their disposal. Unfortunately, they have the same problem they did last season, which was who was going to step up in crunch time? That's why, despite their hot finish last season, they still lost to OKC in 5, and why this time, despite their hot finish, they'll lose to the Lakers. Los Angeles has just too much talent for Denver too handle, though I think the series will be much closer than people think, because all four regular season match-ups between the two teams were decided by single digits.
Prediction: LA Lakers in 6
(2) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (7) Dallas Mavericks
A lot of people think Oklahoma City will be the Western Conference champions, and there's a saying that goes to be the champion, you've got to beat the champion. OKC is going to get that opportunity in the very first round in what should be a fun rematch of last year's Western Conference Finals. While Dallas is definitely worse than they were last year, I think they're still a pretty strong team. After a slow start, Dirk Nowitzki is back to his old form, and Dallas has several solid (though not great) veterans in Jason Terry, Shawn Marion, Jason Kidd, and Vince Carter. If Nowitzki can heat up again, there's no reason to think Dallas can't pull off the upset, but the problem is, I don't expect Nowitzki to play like he did last year. Oklahoma City is just way too good and way too fast, and Dallas is going to go back to losing in the first round like they did in pre-championship days.
Prediction: Oklahoma City in 5
I usually like to predict the later rounds as well, but I'm not going to analyze them since if I get them wrong, then they become pointless.
Second Round
Chicago def. Boston in 7
Miami def. Indiana in 5
San Antonio def. LA Clippers in 5
Oklahoma City def. LA Lakers in 6
Conference Finals
Chicago def. Miami in 7
San Antonio def. Oklahoma City in 7
NBA Finals
Chicago def. San Antonio in 6
Which teams have characteristics of a championship team?
Can you believe that this delayed and shortened NBA season is finally over? I just kind of came by, but that's fine, because it's playoff time! Before the playoffs start, I wanted to kind of look to see which of the current playoff teams have characteristics that championship teams of the past have had. Here's the criteria that I come up with:
.610+ winning percentage (1.00)
Top half in Offensive Rating (.92)
Top 10 in Defensive Rating (.92)
Top 20 in Slowest Pace (.85)
Top 10 in Attendance (.92)
Top 10 in FG% (.85)
Top half in Total Rebounds (.92)
Top half in Blocks (.77)
2+ All-Stars (.77)
Top 10 Oldest Teams (.92)
Elite Offensive Post Player (.92)
These are characteristics that I found most NBA championship teams since the 1998-99 season have had. The reason I started with the 1999 season was because Chicago had three-peated before that, and considering how special of a player Michael Jordan is, I felt it was have gone with the trend I have above. The number I have in parenthesis corresponds to the percentage of the time the team that won the championship had that characteristic. For instance. .92 for top 10 in Defensive Rating meant that 92% of the champions in the last 13 years (that means all but one) had one of the ten best defenses in the league.
Using the criteria above, I came up with a formula to evaluate which team is most like a championship team. The way I did this was assigning a weighted point for each criteria a team met. When I say weight point, I mean that a team that had was top 10 in Offensive Rating got .92 points for that, whereas if they were top 10 in FG%, they got just .85 points for that. After adding up each team's points, I divided by the total number of points (9.77), and got a percentage.
Now, this isn't to be taken to seriously. This is just based off of past trends of the NBA champions since 1999. This is NOT who the best team in the league is and this is NOT necessarily who I think will win the championship. The fact of the matter is that being good in the regular season is different from being good in the playoffs. For instance, run-and-gun offense doesn't translate as well into the postseason, and bigs do matter a lot more. Match-ups are also an essential part of postseason success. As a result, what this should be taken as is a guide to see who which teams are more built to endure the struggles of the NBA playoffs.
16. New York Knicks (18.8%)
For a team that many people thought could challenge in the East, New York just doesn't have what it takes to be a championship team. They're superstar big, Amare Stoudemire, had a pretty bad year, leaving Carmelo Anthony as the only true star on this team. New York wasn't the offensive team a lot of people expected them to be, and the only two categories the hit were defense and attendance.
T14. Atlanta Hawks (27.5%)
Year and year out, the Hawks always seem to have the talent to make a run, but they never do. They've got really talented players in Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, and a currently out Al Horford. Unfortunately, none of them are whom I would consider elite. What they do have to their advantage though is that they're an experienced team that's been together a while, and they're good on the defensive end.
T14. Denver Nuggets (27.5%)
Denver has a lot of good talent, ranging from their top player Ty Lawson, to the veteran Al Harrington, to the young Kenneth Faried. Unfortunately, like Atlanta, they lack a truly elite player. Of course, under the leadership of former-Sonic coach George Karl (who has now gone 20 straight years without a losing season), Denver has one of the league's top offenses, which is about the only thing they've got working for them.
13. Philadelphia 76ers (35.4%)
Philadelphia kind of resembles Denver in that they're a star-less team with a great amount of talent. Whereas Denver managed to excel based off their excellent offense, Philadelphia's teamwork resulted in the league's 3rd best defense. The saying goes defense wins championships, but without much of an offense, championships are hard to come by.
12. Memphis Grizzlies (36.2%)
As good as Memphis has been this season, they're just not built for the long run. With Zach Randolph out for an extended period of time, it was the Memphis defense that kept them in the hunt. Rudy Gay and Marc Gasol are two good players, but they could only take the offense so far. If Randolph emerges back into himself of last playoffs, Memphis could possibly make a run.
11. Boston Celtics (52.0%)
Boston is a good, experienced defensive-oriented team. They've still got their big guns in Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce, and Kevin Garnett, however, none of them are exactly at the Kobe/LeBron level. Talent, experience, and defense are all needed to make a run at the trophy, however, when you're offense is 4th worst in the league, you're probably not getting very far.
T9. Utah Jazz (53.5%)
The Utah Jazz defied expectations just by making the playoffs in their first full post-Sloan and post-Deron year. Due to the effectiveness of their two post players, Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap, the team ended up being the 6th best offensive team in the league. Adding to that, they were third in rebounds and fourth in blocks, though only 19th in overall defense. Utah is solid all around, but they're a bit too young to make a huge splash.
T9. Oklahoma City Thunder (53.5%)
Here's the biggest surprise! We all know OKC is a great, talented team and they've been for a while the favorites out west, but they do have some big issues to address. They severely lack a dominant interior player on the offensive end, they're defense is good but not excellent, and they still might be a little too young. They've got two of the best players in the league, but what happens when they're shots aren't falling?
8. Indiana Pacers (55.1%)
Anyone surprised by this one? I kind of am. Indiana is actually only one of four teams to hit the offensive (7th) and defensive (9th) criteria. They're a very well-balanced team, with seven different guys averaging at least 9 points a game. What hurts them most though is their low field goal percentage (they excel at 3's and getting to the line) and their lack of a guy who can take over a game.
7. Orlando Magic (55.8%)
I'm not sure how to talk about this since Dwight Howard isn't going to be playing in the postseason. The team has a 55.8% partly due to their offense, rebounding, and having an offensive post player, all of which is negated by Howard's absence. If we don't include those three categories, then Orlando's rating goes down to 27.5%, putting them only above New York.
6. San Antonio Spurs (56.6%)
Despite having won the west last season, San Antonio wasn't a sexy pick to make it to the NBA Finals. I say ditto for this season. They're top 10 in both offense and defense, but they do have two things working against them. One is that, even with the magnificent season Tony Parker is having, they don't really have that superstar that can carry them in tight games. Also, this is a much younger team then the Spur teams that have won championships in the past.
5. LA Clippers (62.9%)
A big reason the Clippers are this high is due to their duo of Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. Those two led the Clippers to the fourth best offense in the league, and a top ten in FG%. Paul had an MVP-type season and showed himself capable of carrying the team on his back, whether through scoring or distributing. Griffin, though he isn't super polished, is an All-Star big man who gives the Clips a threat down low.
4. Dallas Mavericks (63.7%)
Interestingly enough, I think Dallas actually may have had a higher score than they did last year. Dallas is definitely not the team they were last year, and have been pretty average this year. Their biggest issue was that their offense plummeted, going from 8th in the league to 22nd. However, even with the departure of Tyson Chandler, Dallas didn't lose anything on the defensive end, remaining at 8th. Add a team with a lot of experience and Dirk Nowitzki, and you've got a team that shouldn't be counted out just yet.
3. Miami Heat (81.1%)
Miami was who I picked to win it all at the beginning of the year, and though they didn't take the league by storm, they're still one of the favorites. They've got two of the best players in the league in LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, they're tremendous on the defensive end, and they've got tons of veteran players. What prevents Miami from being higher is their play down low. They're not an elite rebounding team (LeBron leads them in RPG) and I'm still concerned about Chris Bosh's ability to dominate a game.
2. Chicago Bulls (81.8%)
Just edging out Miami, both in the standings and this list, are the Chicago Bulls. Like Miami, Chicago is skilled on both sides of the ball, ranking in the top 5 in both Offensive and Defensive Rating. Also like Miami, Chicago's ability score down low scares me a little. I really like Carlos Boozer, who's averaging 15 points and 53% from the field, but at 6'9, he doesn't command the same presence as an Andrew Bynum or Dwight Howard would.
1. LA Lakers (90.5%)
Despite their record, their struggles, and their controversies, there's a reason the Lakers are always one of the favorites to win the championship. They were good, but not great, in the regular season, but they're definitely a team built for the playoffs. They've gone deep many years before, they've got a star in Kobe Bryant, they've got a post game in Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, their fan base is great, etc. There was only one category they didn't hit: Defensive Rating. Can they do what only one team in the last 13 years has done, and win the championship with a non-top 10 rating? (By the one, that one team was their 2001 counterparts, who only lost once in the playoffs)
Saturday, April 21, 2012
How would Gary Payton do in a one-on-one tournament?
I always find myself reading the Bleacher Report every day, and currently, they are presenting a series of articles where they have a 64-man tournaments pitting both NBA legends of the past, and current NBA players. They began with an all encompassing 64-man tournament, and then had tournaments based on positions. Several weeks ago, they featured the Legends vs. Current player tournament for the point guard position. Here's the link for it:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1115159-64-one-on-one-nba-legends-vs-current-stars-march-madness-tourney-pg-edition
The Seattle SuperSonics have a few players representing here, such as Lenny Wilkens, Dennis Johnson, but notably, Gary Payton. That's where I want to focus. Payton is given a 6th seed in the South Division, and that's fair enough. The writer of this article, Peter Emerick, has Payton beating Jarrett Jack in the 1st round, but where I want to start my discussion is in the second round, where Payton is matched-up against Steve Nash.
The whole Steve Nash vs. Gary Payton thing is something that I've actually thought of a lot in the past. When it comes to who was the greatest player, I think cases could be made either way, but for the context of this tournament, we're talking about how they would fare against each other, one-on-one.
Emerick has Payton beating Nash by a score of 25-21, and describes their pick-up game as "a seriously physical matchup, with both players battling it out for the longevity of the game." First of all, I don't really see Nash as much of a physical player. Also, in a five-on-five game, I could see these two battling it out, but not so much in a one-on-one setting.
Let's start off with considering how these two would fare when Payton has the ball. Payton was a little bit bigger than most point guards, and a result, one of the most notable parts of his game was being able to dominate defenders in the post. Payton stands at 6'4, 180 lbs, given him a one-inch advantage over Nash. That one-inch advantage may not seem like a lot, but it means tons when considering this: Steve Nash can't play defense!!! And it wasn't just Payton's size that gave him an advantage in the post, but if you've ever seen tape, he had tremendous footwork. Add in Payton's decent, though definitely not great, shooting abilities, and there is no way Nash can stop Payton. Payton scores almost every time. The only way Payton wouldn't be able to terrorize Nash with the ball is if he got to cocky and started hoisting up long jumpers, which actually isn't out of the question.
Moving on, let's examine how Payton would do defending Nash. I think it's safe to say that Payton is one of the greatest defensive guards ever, and Nash is one of the greatest offensive guards ever. However, in Nash's case, much of his offensive threat comes from his ability to distribute the ball. The 13 points he's averaging this season don't mean much without the 11 assists he's getting in a little over 30 minutes per game. Nash makes his teammates better, but unfortunately, in this game, he has none. Another think we all know of Nash is that he's a phenomenal shooter. He's currently averaging for the season 54% from the field, 41% from the stripe, and 89% from the line. Taking his lack of teammates into account, combined with his great shooting, what exactly does that mean for a one-on-one game? Well, Nash is a player very capable of creating his own shots, but a lot of this is through his masterful use of screens. Take away players screening for him (and also he's not too quick at this age), and Nash's ability to conjure up a good shot is severely limited. Adding to that, his lack of teammates means that defenders don't have too worry about whether he's going to drive, pass, or shoot. His creativity is now greatly stalled. With no teammates to work with, and with the best defensive point guard in NBA history guarding him, Nash is going to have a hand right in his grill for 99% of his shots. Now, never count on one of the greatest shooters the NBA has ever seen, but hot shooting can only go you so far.
With that said, how do I think the game would end? In the best case scenario for Payton, he scores 25 before Nash can even get into double digits (Remember, according to the rules Emerick set, player keeps gets the ball if they make the shot). For Nash, if Payton relies to much on his outside shot than his post-up game, and Nash gets on a hot streak, then Nash might be able to just squeak out a win. As even as both players may be in the course of NBA history, in a one-on-one game, I'd give it to Payton, by a score of maybe 25-8.
In the Sweet Sixteen, Emerick has Payton losing to Kemba Walker, 19-25. While upsets are nice, I think this kind of stretches. Walker gives up three inches and eight pounds, so there's no way a rookie like him could guard a Payton in his prime in the post. Second, Walker is shooting 37% from the field and 32% from three. If he shoots that badly against the average NBA defense, just imagine how much he would struggle against a former Defensive Player of the Year. Gary Payton wins 9 times out of 10.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1115159-64-one-on-one-nba-legends-vs-current-stars-march-madness-tourney-pg-edition
The Seattle SuperSonics have a few players representing here, such as Lenny Wilkens, Dennis Johnson, but notably, Gary Payton. That's where I want to focus. Payton is given a 6th seed in the South Division, and that's fair enough. The writer of this article, Peter Emerick, has Payton beating Jarrett Jack in the 1st round, but where I want to start my discussion is in the second round, where Payton is matched-up against Steve Nash.
The whole Steve Nash vs. Gary Payton thing is something that I've actually thought of a lot in the past. When it comes to who was the greatest player, I think cases could be made either way, but for the context of this tournament, we're talking about how they would fare against each other, one-on-one.
Emerick has Payton beating Nash by a score of 25-21, and describes their pick-up game as "a seriously physical matchup, with both players battling it out for the longevity of the game." First of all, I don't really see Nash as much of a physical player. Also, in a five-on-five game, I could see these two battling it out, but not so much in a one-on-one setting.
Let's start off with considering how these two would fare when Payton has the ball. Payton was a little bit bigger than most point guards, and a result, one of the most notable parts of his game was being able to dominate defenders in the post. Payton stands at 6'4, 180 lbs, given him a one-inch advantage over Nash. That one-inch advantage may not seem like a lot, but it means tons when considering this: Steve Nash can't play defense!!! And it wasn't just Payton's size that gave him an advantage in the post, but if you've ever seen tape, he had tremendous footwork. Add in Payton's decent, though definitely not great, shooting abilities, and there is no way Nash can stop Payton. Payton scores almost every time. The only way Payton wouldn't be able to terrorize Nash with the ball is if he got to cocky and started hoisting up long jumpers, which actually isn't out of the question.
Moving on, let's examine how Payton would do defending Nash. I think it's safe to say that Payton is one of the greatest defensive guards ever, and Nash is one of the greatest offensive guards ever. However, in Nash's case, much of his offensive threat comes from his ability to distribute the ball. The 13 points he's averaging this season don't mean much without the 11 assists he's getting in a little over 30 minutes per game. Nash makes his teammates better, but unfortunately, in this game, he has none. Another think we all know of Nash is that he's a phenomenal shooter. He's currently averaging for the season 54% from the field, 41% from the stripe, and 89% from the line. Taking his lack of teammates into account, combined with his great shooting, what exactly does that mean for a one-on-one game? Well, Nash is a player very capable of creating his own shots, but a lot of this is through his masterful use of screens. Take away players screening for him (and also he's not too quick at this age), and Nash's ability to conjure up a good shot is severely limited. Adding to that, his lack of teammates means that defenders don't have too worry about whether he's going to drive, pass, or shoot. His creativity is now greatly stalled. With no teammates to work with, and with the best defensive point guard in NBA history guarding him, Nash is going to have a hand right in his grill for 99% of his shots. Now, never count on one of the greatest shooters the NBA has ever seen, but hot shooting can only go you so far.
With that said, how do I think the game would end? In the best case scenario for Payton, he scores 25 before Nash can even get into double digits (Remember, according to the rules Emerick set, player keeps gets the ball if they make the shot). For Nash, if Payton relies to much on his outside shot than his post-up game, and Nash gets on a hot streak, then Nash might be able to just squeak out a win. As even as both players may be in the course of NBA history, in a one-on-one game, I'd give it to Payton, by a score of maybe 25-8.
In the Sweet Sixteen, Emerick has Payton losing to Kemba Walker, 19-25. While upsets are nice, I think this kind of stretches. Walker gives up three inches and eight pounds, so there's no way a rookie like him could guard a Payton in his prime in the post. Second, Walker is shooting 37% from the field and 32% from three. If he shoots that badly against the average NBA defense, just imagine how much he would struggle against a former Defensive Player of the Year. Gary Payton wins 9 times out of 10.
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
Best Team in NBA History Final!!!
Here we are, down to the championship game of our simulation to determine which team is the best team in history! Of course, as it should be, we have a Lakers-Celtic match-up. With both teams winning at least 67 games and the championship during their seasons, I guess it would be okay to say they both deserved to be at this stage.
(2) 1986 Boston Celtics (67-15) vs. (1) 1972 LA Lakers (69-13)
Unfortunately, unlike so many games in the Boston-LA rivalry, this game didn't exactly end up being a classic. For most of the game, though, it was tight as neither team seemed to be able to pull apart. Boston led by a single point after the first frame, only to have LA come back to take a 57-51 lead heading into the half. Despite their lead, the second half, and especially the fourth quarter, was mainly the Celtics. Boston cut the lead to 79-81 heading into the final period, setting us up for what could have been a memorable result. However, Robert Parish's jumper with 10:54 gave Boston an 83-81 lead, and they would never look back. Boston extended their lead to ten points after a Larry Bird three-point play with 5:05 to go. The Lakers would respond with a 6-0 run led by Jerry West, but 106-102 would be the closest Los Angeles would get, as the Big Three of the Celtics led the team to victory!
Boston 116, Los Angeles 107
Bird played great, leading all scorers with 29 points, along with 15 rebounds (not to mention 3 steals, 3 blocks, and 3 assists). His play earned him the Final Four Most Outstanding Player. Bird was aided by Parish who chipped in 19 points and Kevin McHale who contributed 18 points and 12 rebounds.
For the Lakers, Jerry West scored 26 points to lead the team, and Gail Goodrich added 23. The great Wilt Chamberlain had an extraordinary performance himself, as he recorded a line of 18 points, 17 rebounds, 7 assists, and 4 blocks.
In this game, what it all came down to was making shots. Boston shot 53% from the field, compared to only 43% by Los Angeles. As well, Boston got to the line more and hit their shots, going 26/30, while Los Angeles managed just 17 mades off 23 attempts.
Final Thoughts
You know what I love? Is that I can do this all over again next year, and most likely get pretty different results. Maybe we'll see an appearance from Michael Jordan or one of Russell's Celtics in the Final Four. Perhaps it'll be a team from the 2011-12 season. And most likely I'll change the selection process, so who knows, maybe a team who wasn't even in the tournament will win it all!
Sunday, April 1, 2012
Best NBA Team Final Four!!!
Here we are, at the Final Four of our simulated tournament to determine the greatest team in NBA History! Are we going to see yet another Boston-LA match-up? Or perhaps we'll see two teams that didn't even win the championship in their year battle off for the greatest team of all-time.
(5) 2006 Detroit Pistons (63-19) vs. (2) 1986 Boston Celtics (67-15)
Here we have a team that's basically devoid of any superstars, going up against a team filled with a Big 3 of Larry Bird, Robert Parish, and Kevin McHale. Though it took a while, this difference in star power showed. The Pistons made the first two buckets, and wouldn't relinquish their lead until just about three minutes left in the first, but from their, it was almost all Celtics. Detroit to a four point lead into the second, and extended their lead to double-digits heading into the half. The Pistons slowly charged back, and with 2:17 left in the third, tied the game at 75 a piece. However, some nice plays by Larry Bird helped Boston take an 82-77 lead into the next frame. Though four points by Rip Hamilton in 33 seconds in the first minute of the first would pull the Pistons within one, that was as close as they would get. Boston outscored Detroit 6-0 in the last 1:58 of the game, on their way to the championship game. Bird led all scorers with 31 points, and was helped out by the 18 points and 12 rebounds of Parish. Hamilton's 20 led the Pistons, and Ben Wallace added 15 rebounds, but it wasn't enough to help a Detroit team that got pounded 52-42 on the boards. Free-throws also proved to be a big difference, as Boston was a perfect 17-17 from the stripe, while Detroit was just 11-20.
Final Score: Boston 108, Detroit 98
http://whatifsports.com/NBA/boxscore.asp?GameID=5817819&nomenu=1&teamfee=-1
(5) 1993 Phoenix Suns (62-20) vs. (1) 1972 LA Lakers (69-13)
The game had the makings of a classic as both teams went back and forth at the start. In the first, no team led by more than four points, and Los Angeles took a 28-27 lead going into the second. However, with 7:16 left in the half, John Trapp of the Lakers made a 12-footer that gave the Lakers the lead, and sparked an 8-0 run. From there, the Lakers would never look back. Los Angeles would take a 64-55 heading into intermission, and then outscore Phoenix 28-18 in the third to extend their lead to 92-73. Though Phoenix would mount a comeback and cut the lead to four with 1:19 remaining, it was too little too late as Los Angeles advanced to the championship game. Dan Majerle led all scorers with 31, and Charles Barkley put in 21 points and 16 rebounds in a losing effort. The Lakers proved too much as Jim McMillan, Gail Goodrich, Harry Hairston, Wilt Chamberlain, and Jerry West all scoring at least 18 points, with the latter three getting a double-double.
Final Score: Los Angeles 113, Phoenix 107
http://whatifsports.com/NBA/boxscore.asp?GameID=5817841&nomenu=1&teamfee=-1
Thoughts
All I have to say, is that isn't it appropriate that it's Boston and LA?
(5) 2006 Detroit Pistons (63-19) vs. (2) 1986 Boston Celtics (67-15)
Here we have a team that's basically devoid of any superstars, going up against a team filled with a Big 3 of Larry Bird, Robert Parish, and Kevin McHale. Though it took a while, this difference in star power showed. The Pistons made the first two buckets, and wouldn't relinquish their lead until just about three minutes left in the first, but from their, it was almost all Celtics. Detroit to a four point lead into the second, and extended their lead to double-digits heading into the half. The Pistons slowly charged back, and with 2:17 left in the third, tied the game at 75 a piece. However, some nice plays by Larry Bird helped Boston take an 82-77 lead into the next frame. Though four points by Rip Hamilton in 33 seconds in the first minute of the first would pull the Pistons within one, that was as close as they would get. Boston outscored Detroit 6-0 in the last 1:58 of the game, on their way to the championship game. Bird led all scorers with 31 points, and was helped out by the 18 points and 12 rebounds of Parish. Hamilton's 20 led the Pistons, and Ben Wallace added 15 rebounds, but it wasn't enough to help a Detroit team that got pounded 52-42 on the boards. Free-throws also proved to be a big difference, as Boston was a perfect 17-17 from the stripe, while Detroit was just 11-20.
Final Score: Boston 108, Detroit 98
http://whatifsports.com/NBA/boxscore.asp?GameID=5817819&nomenu=1&teamfee=-1
(5) 1993 Phoenix Suns (62-20) vs. (1) 1972 LA Lakers (69-13)
The game had the makings of a classic as both teams went back and forth at the start. In the first, no team led by more than four points, and Los Angeles took a 28-27 lead going into the second. However, with 7:16 left in the half, John Trapp of the Lakers made a 12-footer that gave the Lakers the lead, and sparked an 8-0 run. From there, the Lakers would never look back. Los Angeles would take a 64-55 heading into intermission, and then outscore Phoenix 28-18 in the third to extend their lead to 92-73. Though Phoenix would mount a comeback and cut the lead to four with 1:19 remaining, it was too little too late as Los Angeles advanced to the championship game. Dan Majerle led all scorers with 31, and Charles Barkley put in 21 points and 16 rebounds in a losing effort. The Lakers proved too much as Jim McMillan, Gail Goodrich, Harry Hairston, Wilt Chamberlain, and Jerry West all scoring at least 18 points, with the latter three getting a double-double.
Final Score: Los Angeles 113, Phoenix 107
http://whatifsports.com/NBA/boxscore.asp?GameID=5817841&nomenu=1&teamfee=-1
Thoughts
All I have to say, is that isn't it appropriate that it's Boston and LA?
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