Credit: Richard Rowe, US Presswire
After about a month a half, we are finally down to the last two teams. Throughout my life, I've always been said to stick to my first instinct, and I definitely should have done that here. Before the season began, I predicted a Heat-Thunder Final, but before the playoffs began, I switched it to Bulls-Spurs. Oops.
For anyone in Seattle, this is probably the worst match-up imaginable. From the East, there's the villains of the NBA; the team everybody loves to hate. Coming from the West, there's Seattle's former darlings, the team that left us in misery and is now basking in glory. Let me just say, I personally hate the Heat, but they'll have my full support going up against the Thunders.
If you've been reading my previews from past rounds, you might've noticed that I haven't quite decided on one consistent way of comparing two teams. What I've decided now is that I'm going to do a comparison of the best player at each position for both teams, followed by why each team could win the series.
POSITION COMPARISONS
Point Guard-Russell Westbrook (OKC) vs. Mario Chalmers (MIA)
Over these past two years, Westbrook has proven himself to be one of the best players in the NBA, while just this past season, Chalmers has solidified himself as a decent, but not spectacular player. There's no doubt that Oklahoma City has a big advantage here, but Chalmers could serve as an important X-Factor. LeBron James and Dwyane Wade will draw a lot of attention when penetrating to the basket, leaving shooters open beyond the arc. During the postseason, Miami has never lost when Chalmers has made at least two three-pointers in a game (7-0).
Edge: OKC
Shooting Guard-James Harden (OKC) vs. Dwyane Wade (MIA)
At the 2, we have a match-up between one of the NBA's rising stars, going up against one of the best players in the league. While there's no doubt in my mind that Wade is the better player of the two, in the playoffs, it's been Harden, and not Wade, who's stepped up. Harden has come up big in the postseason, especially against the Spurs, where he shot 61% from behind the arc. On the other hand, Wade hasn't unleashed a monster game (except from Game 6 against Indiana) and has mostly been overshadowed by James, and he hasn't been shooting that efficiently either (27.6% from three, 71.4% from the stripe). Still, Harden has not had to face someone with the defensive acumen of Wade, and I expect the former Finals-MVP to step up in his third trip to the Finals.
Edge: Miami
Small Forward-Kevin Durant (OKC) vs. LeBron James (MIA)
This is probably one of the greatest Finals match-up in the history of the league. For the first time since 1997, the two best players in the league will be pitted against each other hand in the NBA Finals. Unlike 1997, though, these guys actually play the same position (Michael Jordan and Karl Malone was who I was referring too before). Not only that, but we've got two guys here we completely different reputations. In Durant, we have a clutch fan-favorite who has led the league in scoring each of the past three seasons. With James, we have a villainous three-time league MVP who has been mocked for not having won a ring yet. Both players have played spectacularly this postseason, but I've got to give the edge to James. When Durant is on, he's able to win close games for OKC, but when James is on, the games not close by the time the fourth quarter comes around. I feel that James is definitely going to step up from how he played against Dallas last year, but it'll be interesting to see exactly how much he'll step up. Durant has become the darling of the NBA this past month, but now he'll face a real challenge, going up against the best defensive small forward in the league.
Edge: Miami
Power Forward-Serge Ibaka (OKC) vs. Chris Bosh (MIA)
This is a really intriguing match-up because it pits one of the best defensive players in Ibaka and one of the most skilled big men in Bosh. I feel that people have tended to overhype Ibaka a little bit, because even though he's a great defensive player, his 10.7 points in 29.1 minutes a game this postseason isn't overly impressive (though when you have Durant, Harden, and Westbrook on your team, it is kind of hard to score), and his 5.9 rebounds is pretty underwhelming. Coming off of an injury, Bosh is kind of a question mark. Are we going to see a Bosh who is invisible playing with James and Wade, or are we going to see a Bosh that puts up 20-10 and shows us why he's been an All Star each of the past seven seasons. Here's something to note: In the playoffs, Miami is 6-1 when Bosh plays at least half the game.
Edge: Miami
Center-Kendrick Perkins (OKC) vs. Udonis Haslem (MIA)
Perkins and Haslem are both two players who are better and more important than their numbers show. They're not called on to do too much, except to play good, hard defense. However, I've been much of a Perkins fans. Besides being a big body to through on the defensive end, I've never felt he's really done much over his time with OKC. At least Haslem can rebound.
Edge: Miami
Role Players-Derek Fisher, Nick Collison, Thabo Sefolosha (OKC) vs. Shane Battier, Mike Miller, Joel Anthony (MIA)
One of the big reasons that Oklahoma City has been successful is that they've excelled at surrounding their stars with quality role players. Fisher has once again stepped up in the playoffs, Collison continues to be the guy who does the little and dirty stuff while making few mistakes, and Sefolosha is a very good defensive stopper that could be thrown at Wade. Miami has a nice group of veterans, but they don't provide the same support the OKC role players do. Shane Battier hasn't been able to make a shot the entire season, Miller can make the long balls but doesn't play defense, and Anthony... is just kind of there.
Edge: OKC
Why Miami Will Win: As I've said many times before, in a close series, and I do expect this will be a close series, the best player will usually decide the winner. LeBron James is easily the best player in this series, and I truly believe that he'll step it up this year. We've already seen how dominate the Heat can be when James alone has a big game. During the postseason, when James has scored at least 30 points and has double figures in rebounding, Miami is 8-1, and has a margin of victory of +14.2 points. Throw in satisfactory performances by Wade and Bosh, and Miami becomes nearly impossible to beat. With Bosh healthy, Miami possesses the only elite offensive post player in the series, and history tells us that that is necessary for a title. For this year, I'd rather have the Heat's Big 3 than OKC's, and that matters in a championship series that usually is dependent on stars.
I also want to make a point of the difficulties of the teams that Miami and OKC have had to go through to get to the Finals. People make a big deal out of Oklahoma City having had to go through Dallas and Los Angeles in the first two rounds, and Miami only having to go through New York and Indiana. If we look at these teams from a statistical vantage point, then one could make the case that Indiana and New York were both better than Dallas and Los Angeles. Dallas and Los Angeles had point differentials during the regular season of +1.0 and +1.4 respectively, while New York was at +3.2 and Indiana at +3.3. Even though Miami have lost more games so far during the playoffs, they still have had a larger margin of victory +7.9, compared to Oklahoma City's +6.7
Why Oklahoma City Will Win:
I found this meme on NBA Memes on Facebook, and it was exactly what I was thinking. Miami and Oklahoma City have each lost one more game in a round than they did the round before, so with that trend, the OKC Thunder will beat Miami 4-3! Oklahoma City just seems destined to win the NBA Championship. They're a young team who has beat the last 13 Western Conference Champions in order to make it to the NBA Finals. To be a champion, you've got to beat the champion, and they dealt with the Dallas Mavericks pretty handily. Then they had to deal with Kobe Bryant and the tremendous size of the LA Lakers, and they only dropped one to them. They followed that up by beating the San Antonio Spurs in four consecutive games, despite the fact San Antonio had previously won 20 straight. Let's also not forget that Oklahoma City has yet to lose a game at home this postseason, and they do have home-court advantage.
If these two teams are as evenly matched as I, and many others, think it is, then we'll see a lot of close games. When it comes to making killer shots in the clutch, Durant has definitely proved better at doing that than James or anyone else on the Heat. During the postseason, in the last 2 minutes of a one possession game, Durant is 6 of 10 from the field, compared to James' 3 of 7. Close series also tend to rely on the little things, and the role players. I trust Fisher, Collison, and Sefolosha to contribute more than Battier, Miller, or Anthony will. As well, I feel Scott Brooks is much more of a competent coach than Erik Spoelstra.
Conclusion: My heart tells me that Oklahoma City will win this, but my mind is leaning towards Miami. Oklahoma City just seems destined to win it all. They're a young and upcoming team who's beat teams who made up the last 13 Western Conference Champions, and Kevin Durant's clutchness and OKC's homecourt really makes me nervous. On the other hand, I like to pay attention to history. History says the best player will carry his team (LeBron James), championship teams need an offensive post player (Bosh), experienced teams prevail over young ones (Durant, Harden, and Westbrook are all 23 or younger) and defense beats offense (Miami ranked 4th in defense and OKC was 11th).
I also feel that it's important not to buy into hype too much. Last year, everyone's obsession with LeBron James and Miami caused people to overlook Dallas in the Finals. In 2008, the Lakers return to the NBA Finals made people pick them over a Celtic team that won 66 games. In the end, I expect James to have a tremendous series and to finally get his ring.
Verdict: Miami in 7
Credit: Mike Erhmann, Getty Images
No comments:
Post a Comment